SSL

We rate SASOL LTD (SSL) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.7/100 at a current price of $8.90. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (94th percentile) and quality (78th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (42/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SASOL LTD holds a lower-quartile position (#39 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.7/100 places it at rank #369 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.9B in market capitalization, SASOL LTD is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -7% combined with momentum at the 52th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 48% (+5.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (-4.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 6%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $8.90, SASOL LTD appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 94/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 14.7x (roughly in line with the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 1.2x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.1x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to SASOL LTD. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: the combination of leverage (69% D/E) and thin margins (3.1% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: the combination of leverage (69% D/E) and thin margins (3.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 44th percentile and quality factor at the 78th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 48% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SASOL LTD's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 20.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 69%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; SASOL LTD falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, SASOL LTD receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 63.7/100 (rank #369 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (42/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 65/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SASOL LTD. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.