SPIR

We rate Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) as Avoid with a composite score of 28.8/100 at a current price of $8.86. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (36th percentile) and quality (26th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (15th percentile) and momentum (21th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Spire Global, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 28.8/100 places it at rank #4606 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $358M in market capitalization, Spire Global, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -50% combined with momentum at the 21th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 42% (-13.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -111% (-128.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 84.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 203%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $8.86, Spire Global, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 26/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 4.6x (a 73% discount to the sector median of 16.9x), P/B of 2.7x, P/S of 3.6x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Spire Global, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.68), below-average price stability (15th percentile), weak quality scores (26th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.68); below-average price stability (15th percentile); weak quality scores (26th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 15th percentile and quality factor at the 26th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 42% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Spire Global, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at -115.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 0%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Spire Global, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Spire Global, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 28.8/100 (rank #4606 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 25/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Spire Global, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.