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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4300
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Healthcare
$116M
Gregory C. Critchfield
Sera Prognostics, Inc. develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = SERA ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$SERA SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. | 33 | 25 | 18 | 46 | - | - | -38.9% | -29.6% | -100.9% | -41462.3% | -36254.6% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 32.0x | $116M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 33.1/100. It ranks #4300 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for SERA.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 25 | 8 | +17ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 46 | 44 | +2NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 18 | 9 | +9ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 36 | 58 | -22DRAG |
| STABILITY | 29 | 19 | +10ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 44 | 39 | +5NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -38.9% (sector 5.7%)
GM -101% vs sector 65%, OM -41462% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 14021.1%
Rev growth -33%, 5yr history
Interest coverage -4490.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA) as Avoid with a composite score of 33.1/100 at a current price of $2.27. The stock falls in the bottom quintile, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 33.1/100 places it at rank #4300 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. represents a avoid based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our quantitative model flags SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 33.1/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4300 of 7,333 stocks, SERA falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
SERA's quality score of 25/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -38.9% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of -100.9% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of -36254.6% (sector avg: 2.8%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
SERA registers a value score of just 18/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 1.18x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC.'s investment score of 36/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -33.3% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of -29.6% (sector: 2.4%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
SERA is currently showing below-average momentum at 46/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -33.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.15 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
SERA's stability score of 29/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.15 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 32.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 44/100 for SERA suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 32.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. With a $116M market cap (micro-cap), SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. is a micro-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4300 of 7,333 overall (41st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -38.9% trailing the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of -41462.3% below the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While SERA currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Value (18) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 778% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 256% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Op. Margin 921485% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Sera Prognostics Inc., The Pregnancy Company® (Nasdaq: SERA), focused on improving maternal and neonatal health by providing innovative pregnancy biomarker information to doctors and patients, today announced that the company will present at the TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference on Monday, March 2, 2026 at 1:10 p.m. ET. Members of management will participate in a fireside chat, highlighting Sera's latest achievements. The conference, to be held March 2-4, 2026, in Boston, will also inc
There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, biotech and mining...
Key Insights Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Sera Prognostics' stock price might be vulnerable to...
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