SAIA

We rate SAIA INC (SAIA) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.8/100 at a current price of $401.72. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (58th percentile) and momentum (47th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (22th percentile) and investment (31th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (66/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SAIA INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.8/100 places it at rank #2041 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $8.0B in market capitalization, SAIA INC is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 2%, though momentum at the 47th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 45% (-10.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (-5.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 9.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 20%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $401.72, SAIA INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 42/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 36.5x (a 116% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 27.1x (at a premium), P/B of 4.3x, P/S of 3.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to SAIA INC. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.45), below-average price stability (22th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.45); below-average price stability (22th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 22th percentile and quality factor at the 58th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 45% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (9% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate SAIA INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 11.9%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 9%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; SAIA INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, SAIA INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 49.8/100 (rank #2041 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (66/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on SAIA INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.