PR

We rate Permian Resources Corp (PR) as a Reduce with a composite score of 40.4/100 at a current price of $17.80. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (47th percentile) and stability (46th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (25th percentile) and quality (29th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Permian Resources Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 40.4/100 places it at rank #3494 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $10.2B market capitalization, Permian Resources Corp operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue contraction of -111% combined with momentum at the 25th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

Available margin data shows operating margins of 31%. Incomplete margin data limits our ability to fully assess the cost structure and margin trajectory, though the available metrics provide a partial view of operating efficiency.

At a current price of $17.80, Permian Resources Corp is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 45/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.4x (roughly in line with the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 10.7x (at a premium), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 2.6x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Permian Resources Corp. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (29th percentile) and low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (29th percentile); low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 46th percentile and quality factor at the 29th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 4.69% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Permian Resources Corp's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 31%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Permian Resources Corp falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.69% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Permian Resources Corp receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 40.4/100 (rank #3494 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 38/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Permian Resources Corp at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.