IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Relative to Consumer Discretionary Sector Median (N=442)
Metric
PCAR
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
23.4x
-4%
EV/EBITDA
14.8x
+201%
Price / Book
3.4x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-63.1%
$46.93Spot: $127.34
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Discretionary sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
14.5%
Sector: 6.2%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
4.38%
Trailing Yield
$4.38
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
102%HIGH
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
Sign up for free access to institutional-quality research tools.
Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, PACCAR INC (PCAR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 51.6/100, ranked #804 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 61/100, Momentum 57/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
PACCAR INC (PCAR) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does PACCAR INC Do?
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington. PACCAR INC (PCAR) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically within the Automobiles And Trucks industry. The company is led by CEO Preston R. Feight and employs approximately 31,100 people, headquartered in Bellevue, Washington. With a market capitalization of $61.9B, PCAR is one of the prominent companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
PACCAR INC (PCAR) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, PACCAR INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.PCAR ranks #804 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, PACCAR INC ranks #52 of 442 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Consumer Discretionary peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
PCAR Stock Price and 52-Week Range
PACCAR INC (PCAR) currently trades at $127.34. The stock gained $0.29 (0.2%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for PCAR is $131.88, which means the stock is currently trading -3.4% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $84.65, putting the stock 50.4% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 2.5M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is PCAR Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
PACCAR INC (PCAR) carries a value factor score of 61/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 23.40x, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 24.47x — a discount of 4%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 3.39x, versus the sector average of 1.99x. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.19x, compared to 0.27x for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. On an enterprise value basis, PCAR trades at 14.78x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.91x for the sector.
Overall, PCAR's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
PACCAR INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
PACCAR INC (PCAR) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 14.5%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 6.2%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 6.3% versus the sector average of 2.5%.
On a margin basis, PACCAR INC reports gross margins of 20.3%, compared to 36.9% for the sector. The operating margin is 11.9% (sector: 3.8%). Net profit margin stands at 9.3%, versus 2.1% for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. Revenue growth is running at -23.9% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.3% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
PCAR Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
PACCAR INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 130.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 89.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. The current ratio is 1.77x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $15.85B. Cash and equivalents stand at $6.30B.
PCAR has a beta of 0.89, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for PACCAR INC is 80/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
PACCAR INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, PACCAR INC reported revenue of $29.86B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.52. Net income for the quarter was $2.79B. Gross margin was 20.3%. Operating income came in at $3.57B.
In FY 2025, PACCAR INC reported revenue of $28.44B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.52. Net income for the quarter was $2.38B. Gross margin was 20.1%. Revenue grew -15.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $3.02B.
In Q3 2025, PACCAR INC reported revenue of $6.67B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.12. Net income for the quarter was $590M. Gross margin was 19.9%. Revenue grew -19.0% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $744M.
In Q2 2025, PACCAR INC reported revenue of $7.51B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.38. Net income for the quarter was $724M. Gross margin was 20.2%. Revenue grew -14.4% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $932M.
Over the past 8 quarters, PACCAR INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $8.77B to $29.86B. Investors analyzing PCAR stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
PCAR Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
PACCAR INC (PCAR) currently pays a dividend yield of 4.4%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in PCAR stock would generate approximately $$438.00 in annual dividend income. The net margin of 9.3% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
PCAR Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
PACCAR INC (PCAR) has a momentum factor score of 57/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 38/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 16/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
PCAR vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing PCAR against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full PCAR vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how PACCAR INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
PCAR Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for PACCAR INC (PCAR) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy PCAR? — Investment Thesis Summary
PACCAR INC presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 61/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 80/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, PACCAR INC (PCAR) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on PCAR stock.
We'll email you when stocks you follow change their composite rating.
Institutional Research Dossier
PACCAR INC (PCAR) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain our Hold rating on PACCAR (PCAR), driven by a balanced view of its strong market position and financial performance against a backdrop of cyclical industry dynamics and recent revenue declines. While PACCAR exhibits superior profitability and operational efficiency compared to its peers, its current valuation appears fair, reflecting both its strengths and the inherent volatility of the commercial truck market.
The key takeaway is that PACCAR is a well-managed company with a solid track record, but investors should be aware of the cyclical nature of its business and the potential for revenue fluctuations. The company's ability to navigate these cycles and capitalize on long-term growth opportunities, particularly in electric and autonomous vehicles, will be crucial for future performance.
Business Strategy & Overview
PACCAR operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment, responsible for the design, manufacture, and distribution of Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF trucks, is the core of PACCAR's business. The company differentiates itself through a focus on premium quality, technological innovation, and strong dealer networks. PACCAR's strategic positioning centers on serving the premium segment of the commercial truck market, targeting customers who prioritize reliability, fuel efficiency, and driver comfort. This strategy allows PACCAR to command higher prices and maintain strong margins compared to competitors focused on lower-priced segments.
The Parts segment provides aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles, generating a recurring revenue stream and enhancing customer loyalty. This segment benefits from the long lifespan of commercial trucks and the need for regular maintenance and repairs. PACCAR's extensive dealer network and efficient supply chain contribute to the success of its Parts segment.
The Financial Services segment, operating under the PacLease trade name, offers full-service leasing, finance, and insurance products to customers and dealers. This segment supports truck sales by providing financing options and generates additional revenue through interest income and leasing fees. The Financial Services segment also plays a crucial role in managing residual values of leased trucks, mitigating risks associated with cyclical downturns.
PACCAR is actively investing in the development of electric and autonomous vehicles, recognizing the long-term shift towards sustainable transportation. The company is collaborating with technology partners and expanding its electric vehicle offerings to meet evolving customer demands and regulatory requirements. This investment in future technologies is essential for maintaining PACCAR's competitive edge in the rapidly changing commercial truck market.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-23.9%
Sector: 3.3%
-827% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
PACCAR possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its strong brand reputation and established dealer network. The Kenworth and Peterbilt brands, in particular, enjoy significant customer loyalty and are associated with premium quality and reliability. This brand strength allows PACCAR to command premium pricing and maintain a strong market share in the heavy-duty truck segment.
The company's extensive dealer network provides a competitive advantage by offering comprehensive sales, service, and parts support to customers. This network creates a barrier to entry for new competitors and enhances customer retention. The dealer network also facilitates the distribution of PACCAR's aftermarket parts, contributing to the recurring revenue stream of the Parts segment.
While PACCAR benefits from brand recognition and its dealer network, the commercial truck industry is inherently cyclical and competitive. The demand for trucks is highly sensitive to economic conditions, and manufacturers face intense price competition. This cyclicality limits PACCAR's ability to consistently generate above-average returns on invested capital.
Furthermore, the increasing commoditization of truck components and the emergence of new competitors in the electric vehicle market pose challenges to PACCAR's moat. The company needs to continuously innovate and adapt to maintain its competitive advantage in the face of these challenges. The shift towards electric and autonomous vehicles could disrupt the traditional competitive landscape and erode PACCAR's existing advantages if not managed effectively.
Financial Health & Profitability
PACCAR has historically demonstrated strong financial performance, characterized by high profitability and efficient capital management. However, recent financial results indicate a decline in revenue and net income. The TTM revenue of $28.44 billion represents a significant decrease compared to the $33.66 billion in FY2024 and $35.13 billion in FY2023. This decline reflects the cyclical nature of the commercial truck market and the impact of economic headwinds on demand.
Despite the revenue decline, PACCAR's profitability remains relatively strong compared to its peers. The TTM net income of $2.38 billion translates to a net margin of 9.3%, significantly higher than the sector average of 2.1%. Similarly, PACCAR's operating margin of 11.9% outperforms the sector average of 3.8%. This superior profitability reflects PACCAR's focus on premium products and efficient operations.
PACCAR's balance sheet is characterized by a moderate level of leverage. The company's total debt of $15.85 billion is higher than its total cash of $6.30 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 130.00, which is higher than the sector average of 91.00. While the debt level is manageable, it is important to monitor PACCAR's ability to generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt obligations, especially during periods of economic downturn.
The company's free cash flow is currently negative at $-481.89 million. This is a concerning trend and warrants further investigation. It's crucial to understand the drivers behind this negative free cash flow and assess whether it is a temporary phenomenon or a sign of underlying financial weakness. The absence of free cash flow data in the quarterly history makes it difficult to assess the historical trend and identify potential causes.
Valuation Assessment
PACCAR's valuation appears to be fair based on its current financial performance and market conditions. The company's P/E ratio of 24.6x is slightly lower than the sector average of 28.0x, suggesting that the stock is reasonably priced relative to its earnings. Similarly, PACCAR's EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.8x is significantly lower than the sector average of 5.3x, indicating that the company is undervalued based on its enterprise value and operating performance.
However, it's important to consider the cyclical nature of PACCAR's business when assessing its valuation. The company's earnings and cash flow are highly sensitive to economic conditions, and its valuation should reflect this volatility. During periods of economic expansion, PACCAR's earnings tend to be higher, leading to lower P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios. Conversely, during periods of economic contraction, PACCAR's earnings decline, resulting in higher valuation multiples.
Given the recent decline in revenue and net income, it's possible that PACCAR's current valuation is based on trailing earnings that are not representative of its future performance. If the commercial truck market continues to weaken, PACCAR's earnings could decline further, making the stock appear overvalued at its current price. The negative free cash flow also raises concerns about the company's ability to generate sufficient cash to support its valuation.
Overall, PACCAR's valuation is neither excessively cheap nor excessively expensive. It appears to be fairly priced based on its current financial performance and market conditions. However, investors should be aware of the cyclical nature of the business and the potential for earnings fluctuations. A more conservative valuation approach may be warranted given the current economic uncertainty and the company's recent revenue decline.
Risk & Uncertainty
PACCAR faces several risks and uncertainties that could impact its future performance. The most significant risk is the cyclical nature of the commercial truck market. Demand for trucks is highly correlated with economic growth, and a slowdown in the global economy could lead to a decline in truck sales. This cyclicality can result in significant fluctuations in PACCAR's revenue and earnings.
Competition is another major risk factor. The commercial truck industry is highly competitive, with several large players vying for market share. PACCAR faces competition from established manufacturers such as Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, and Navistar, as well as emerging competitors in the electric vehicle market. Intense price competition could put pressure on PACCAR's margins and profitability.
Regulatory risks also pose a threat to PACCAR's business. Government regulations related to emissions, safety, and fuel efficiency can impact the design and manufacturing of trucks. Changes in these regulations could require PACCAR to make significant investments in new technologies and product development, increasing its costs and potentially reducing its competitiveness.
The shift towards electric and autonomous vehicles presents both opportunities and risks for PACCAR. While the company is investing in these technologies, there is no guarantee that it will be successful in developing and commercializing them. The transition to electric vehicles could also disrupt the traditional supply chain and require PACCAR to adapt its manufacturing processes and dealer network.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWPACCAR's premium brand positioning and strong dealer network provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to command higher prices and maintain strong margins even during economic downturns.
BULL VIEWThe company's investments in electric and autonomous vehicles position it for long-term growth in the rapidly evolving commercial truck market, ensuring its relevance in the future of transportation.
BULL VIEWPACCAR's conservative financial management and strong balance sheet provide a cushion against economic shocks, allowing it to weather downturns and capitalize on opportunities when they arise.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWThe cyclical nature of the commercial truck market makes PACCAR's earnings highly volatile, and a global economic slowdown could lead to a significant decline in truck sales and profitability.
BEAR VIEWThe increasing commoditization of truck components and the emergence of new competitors in the electric vehicle market could erode PACCAR's competitive advantages and put pressure on its margins.
BEAR VIEWPACCAR's negative free cash flow and relatively high debt-to-equity ratio raise concerns about its financial flexibility and ability to invest in future growth opportunities.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score PCAR and 4,400+ other equities.
PACCAR INC exhibits a 245% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
6.3%
Sector: 2.5%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
20.3%
Sector: 36.9%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
11.9%
Sector: 3.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
9.3%
Sector: 2.1%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $438 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
