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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#155
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Petroleum And Natural Gas
$47.9B
Caio Mario Paes de Andrade
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses segments.
Headcount
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | 15.8% | 6.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $38.7B | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | 13.1% | 6.5% | 58.3% | 18.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 4.9% | 29.0x | $46.0B | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | 10.7% | 6.1% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 11.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.0x | $104M | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | 19.6% | 15.7% | 74.8% | 47.5% | 26.2% | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | 15.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 21.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | 9.4% | 6.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.0x | $38.9B | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | 20.3% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 23.1% | -1.3% | 11.2% | 26.0x | $93.8B | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | 29.9% | 17.1% | 33.7% | 57.8% | 51.9% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 34.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | 11.1% | 4.8% | 52.8% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 38.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | 6.6% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $876M | VS | |
$PBR PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA | 68 | 89 | 97 | 35 | - | 1.6x | 51.5% | 16.8% | 50.3% | 37.4% | 8.3% | -10.7% | 0.0% | 88.0x | $47.9B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.0% | 3.9% | 43.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA (PBR) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 68.0/100. It ranks #155 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 4-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Caio Mario Paes de Andrade
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
45,100
89
60
81
Audit Verdict: High quality, disciplined capital allocation, and low volatility suggest strong governance.
No recent insider transactions available for PBR
45.1K
HQ Base
Rio de Janeiro,
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Conservative, efficient capex — capital discipline signals management quality
Top-rated overall — multiple factors aligned for strong entry
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for PBR.
View All RatingsConservative accounting — High cash conversion efficiency
Improving capital utilization rates confirmed
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 89 | 99 | -10DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 35 | 33 | +2NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 97 | 100 | -3NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 60 | 95 | -35DRAG |
| STABILITY | 81 | 89 | -8DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 49 | 53 | -4NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 63.1% vs WACC 8.0% (spread +55.1%)
GM 50% vs sector 43%, OM 37% vs sector 12%
Capital turnover 1.88x, R&D intensity 0.9%
Rev growth -11%, 8yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 2.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.0/100 and 4 out of 5 stars, ranking #155 of 7,333 stocks in our universe. PBR displays a favorable combination of factors that positions it above the majority of the market. While not without risk, the quantitative profile supports a constructive outlook.
PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA scores an outstanding 89/100 on our quality factor, placing it among the highest-quality companies in our coverage universe. The company reports a return on equity of 51.5% (sector avg: 4.0%), gross margins of 50.3% (sector avg: 43.2%), net margins of 8.3% (sector avg: 6.2%). This level of profitability and capital efficiency typically reflects a durable competitive advantage and disciplined management.
From a valuation perspective, PBR scores an exceptional 97/100, indicating the stock trades at a deep discount relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 1.59x, a P/B ratio of 1.72x. A value score this high suggests the market may be significantly underpricing the company's earnings power, assets, or cash flow generation.
PBR shows a solid investment score of 60/100, reflecting measured but productive capital allocation. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -10.7% vs. a sector average of 2.6% and a return on assets of 16.8% (sector: 3.9%). This suggests the company is investing at an appropriate level to sustain growth without overextending its balance sheet.
PBR is currently showing below-average momentum at 35/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -10.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.65 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
PBR shows good financial stability with a score of 81/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 88.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 49/100 for PBR suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 88.00x). With a $47.9B market cap (large-cap), PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA is a large-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #16 of 50 in its sector (68th percentile) and #155 of 7,333 overall (98th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 51.5% exceeding the 4.0% sector median and operating margins of 37.4% above the 12.2% sector average. This above-median position indicates PBR is outperforming a majority of its Mining peers, though there is room to close the gap with sector leaders.
Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Value (97) vs Momentum (35) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
RANK #16 OF 50 IN ENERGY
EV/EBITDA 70% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 1200% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 16% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF DEC 31, 2024 (Q3 FY2024)
We rate PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA (PBR) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.0/100 at a current price of $16.54. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #155 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (97th percentile) and quality (89th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (35th percentile) and investment (60th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (52/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA holds an above-average position (#16 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.0/100 places it at rank #155 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $47.9B market capitalization, PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue contraction of -11% combined with momentum at the 35th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 50% (+7.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 37% (+25.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 8.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 17%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $16.54, PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 97/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 1.6x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.7x, P/S of 0.3x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
The stock's Buy rating (composite score 68.0/100) reflects broad-based quantitative strength, placing it in the top 20% of our 7,333-stock universe.
Gross margins of 50% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Returns on equity of 51.5% exceed the cost of equity for most companies, indicating genuine shareholder value creation and a reinvestment engine that compounds wealth over time.
A value factor score of 97/100 suggests the market is underpricing these fundamentals, creating a potential margin of safety for new investors.
Return on assets of 16.8% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
Revenue decline of -11% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.65, and a stability factor in the 81th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.65 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 81th percentile and quality factor at the 89th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 50% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (81th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 51.5%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 88%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.0/100 (rank #155 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (52/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 72/100.
Our analysis supports a constructive view on PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 52/100. The ROIC-WACC spread of +55.1% is the primary signal of economic value creation. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being margin superiority at 16.5/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (16.5/20) and economic value creation (15/20). GM 50% vs sector 43%, OM 37% vs sector 12%. ROIC 63.1% vs WACC 8.0% (spread +55.1%). These pillars form the core of PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (3.6/20) and growth durability (7.8/20). Capital turnover 1.88x, R&D intensity 0.9%. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 50% providing a solid profitability foundation, operating margins of 37% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-11%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 50% gross to 37% operating to 8.3% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that the profit engine is high-quality and likely sustainable, with the quality factor at the 89th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 50%, operating margins of 37%, net margins of 8.3%. Return metrics include ROE of 51.5% and ROA of 16.8%. Relative to the Mining sector, gross margins are 7.1 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 51.5% compares to a sector median of 4.0%.
The balance sheet reflects above-average leverage with D/E of 88%, revenue growth of -11%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Brazil's state-run oil firm Petrobras has renewed and expanded its oil sales contracts with Indian state-owned oil refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation. These agreements have the potential for sales of up to 60 million barrels, valued at over $3.1 billion, and will remain active until March 2027.
This article examines the hypothetical returns of a $1000 investment in Petrobras (PBR) made ten years ago. It details Petrobras's business segments and financial performance, concluding that such an investment would now be worth $4,420.75, a 342.07% gain, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold. The report also discusses the company's strengths, challenges, and future outlook.
Petrobras (PBR) saw its stock rise by 2.93% on a day when the broader market, including the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq, experienced losses. This positive movement aligns with a 4.33% increase over the past month, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector and the S&P 500. Analysts anticipate strong financial results for Petrobras, with projected earnings growth of 6.12% and revenue growth of 7.78% for the upcoming release, reinforcing a favorable outlook for the company's performance.
Sagil Capital LLP acquired 155,992 shares of Aura Minerals (AUGO) worth approximately $7.86 million in Q4, signaling renewed investor interest in the precious metals miner. The stock has surged 200% since its July Nasdaq debut, driven by stronger gold prices and solid company execution. The investment reflects confidence in Aura's vertically integrated mining operations and diversified portfolio across gold, copper, and silver.
Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras has decided not to exercise its first-refusal rights on Novonor's potential sale of Braskem shares. The potential deal would have involved the transfer of Braskem shares held by a Novonor subsidiary to FIDC Shine. This decision was announced by Petrobras on Thursday.