PAGS

We rate PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.2/100 at a current price of $10.93. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #145 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (94th percentile) and momentum (84th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (50/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. holds an above-average position (#15 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.2/100 places it at rank #145 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.1B in market capitalization, PagSeguro Digital Ltd. is a mid-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (84th percentile), revenue contraction of -7% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 33% (-26.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+9.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 14.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 45%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $10.93, PagSeguro Digital Ltd. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 94/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 9.8x (a 59% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 2.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 0.4x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to PagSeguro Digital Ltd.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.13, conservative leverage (31% D/E), and a stability factor in the 65th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 65th percentile with quality at the 62th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (65th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate PagSeguro Digital Ltd.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 57.7%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 31%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; PagSeguro Digital Ltd. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, PagSeguro Digital Ltd. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.2/100 (rank #145 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (50/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 72/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on PagSeguro Digital Ltd.. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.