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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2086
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Petroleum And Natural Gas
$46.2B
Vicki A. Hollub
Occidental Petroleum Corporation engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride. The Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power.
Headcount
12.0K
HQ Base
Houston, Texas
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | 15.8% | 6.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $38.7B | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | 13.1% | 6.5% | 58.3% | 18.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 4.9% | 29.0x | $46.0B | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | 10.7% | 6.1% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 11.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.0x | $104M | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | 19.6% | 15.7% | 74.8% | 47.5% | 26.2% | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | 15.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 21.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | 9.4% | 6.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.0x | $38.9B | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | 20.3% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 23.1% | -1.3% | 11.2% | 26.0x | $93.8B | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | 29.9% | 17.1% | 33.7% | 57.8% | 51.9% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 34.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | 11.1% | 4.8% | 52.8% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 38.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | 6.6% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $876M | VS | |
$OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ | 50 | 48 | 62 | 27 | 15.0x | 10.7x | 9.3% | 4.0% | 81.3% | 17.2% | 12.5% | -2.8% | 2.0% | 58.0x | $46.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.0% | 3.9% | 43.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ (OXY) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 49.5/100. It ranks #2086 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Vicki A. Hollub
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
12,000
48
32
66
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for OXY
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for OXY.
View All RatingsConservative accounting — High cash conversion efficiency
Material decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 48 | 50 | -2NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 27 | 21 | +6ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 62 | 68 | -6DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 32 | 30 | +2NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 66 | 74 | -8DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 48 | 48 | 0NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 11.0% vs WACC 7.9% (spread +3.1%)
GM 81% vs sector 43%, OM 17% vs sector 12%
Capital turnover 1.12x
Rev growth -3%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 6.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 49.5/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2086 out of 7,333 stocks. OXY's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 48/100, OXY shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 9.3% (sector avg: 4.0%), gross margins of 81.3% (sector avg: 43.2%), net margins of 12.5% (sector avg: 6.2%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
OXY's value score of 62/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 15.04x, an EV/EBITDA of 10.73x, a P/B ratio of 1.40x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/'s investment score of 32/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -2.8% vs. a sector average of 2.6% and a return on assets of 4.0% (sector: 3.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 27/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at -2.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.95 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
OXY shows good financial stability with a score of 66/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.95 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 58.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 48/100 for OXY suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 58.00x). With a $46.2B market cap (large-cap), OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
OXY pays a solid dividend yield of 2.0%, contributing an income component to total returns. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ is a large-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2086 of 7,333 overall (72nd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 9.3% exceeding the 4.0% sector median and operating margins of 17.2% above the 12.2% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Mining peers.
While OXY currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MINING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Momentum (27) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 105% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 134% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 88% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ (OXY) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.5/100 at a current price of $51.95. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (66th percentile) and value (62th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (27th percentile) and investment (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (37/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.5/100 places it at rank #2086 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $46.2B market capitalization, OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue contraction of -3% combined with momentum at the 27th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 81% (+38.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 17% (+4.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 15%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $51.95, OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 62/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 15.0x (roughly in line with the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 10.7x (at a premium), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 1.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Gross margins of 81% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
The Reduce rating (composite 49.5/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -3% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Weak momentum (27th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: risk factors are within normal ranges. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 66th percentile with quality at the 48th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 81% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (66th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 9.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 58%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 2.00% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 49.5/100 (rank #2086 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (37/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 47/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ a meaningful economic moat, scoring 37/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of +3.1% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 15.4/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (15.4/20) and growth durability (10.9/20). GM 81% vs sector 43%, OM 17% vs sector 12%. Rev growth -3%, 10yr history. These pillars form the core of OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (2.5/20) and financial resilience (3.3/20). Capital turnover 1.12x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 81% providing a solid profitability foundation, operating margins of 17% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-3%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 81% gross to 17% operating to 12.5% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 48th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 81%, operating margins of 17%, net margins of 12.5%. Return metrics include ROE of 9.3% and ROA of 4.0%. Relative to the Mining sector, gross margins are 38.1 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 9.3% compares to a sector median of 4.0%.
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with D/E of 58%, a dividend yield of 2.00%, revenue growth of -3%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway invested over $58 billion in oil and gas before his retirement, including major stakes in Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, acquisitions of energy assets, and the purchase of OxyChem. Despite skepticism about fossil fuels, crude prices have risen 14% this year due to geopolitical tensions and winter storms, suggesting Buffett's bet on energy's continued demand may be paying off.
The S&P 500 was on track for double-digit earnings growth, with more than half of companies having reported Q4 results so far.
Occidental Petroleum recently reported Q4 2025 results showing revenue of US$5,423 million and net income of US$126 million, alongside a quarterly dividend increase to US$0.26 per share and new cash tender offers targeting up to US$700 million of senior notes and debentures. By pairing an earnings beat and record production with higher dividends and further debt reduction after the OxyChem sale, Occidental is signaling a clear focus on strengthening its balance sheet while increasing cash...
The S&P 500 was on track for double-digit earnings growth, with more than half of companies having reported Q4 results so far.
U.S. stocks declined Thursday as President Trump hinted at potential military intervention in Iran, boosting crude oil to 7-month highs. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones each dropped 0.5%. Energy stocks surged 0.8% while financials lagged. Notable movers included Occidental Petroleum jumping 9% on earnings beat, Booking Holdings falling 7%, and Deere & Company gaining 12.6% for its best day since March 2020.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081