OSK

We rate OSHKOSH CORP (OSK) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.0/100 at a current price of $177.95. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (82th percentile) and momentum (71th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (63/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

OSHKOSH CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.0/100 places it at rank #415 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $8.3B in market capitalization, OSHKOSH CORP is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (71th percentile), revenue contraction of -6% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 18% (-24.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (+8.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 6.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 36%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $177.95, OSHKOSH CORP appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 82/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 16.0x (a 28% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 10.5x (near the sector median), P/B of 2.5x, P/S of 1.1x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to OSHKOSH CORP. Key risk factors include significant leverage (122% debt-to-equity). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (122% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 70th percentile and quality factor at the 62th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (70th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate OSHKOSH CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 15.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 122%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; OSHKOSH CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.53% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, OSHKOSH CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 63.0/100 (rank #415 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (63/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 67/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on OSHKOSH CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.