IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3139
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Retail
$91.5B
Gregory D. Johnson
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = ORLY ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | 29.1% | 5.1% | 46.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 153.0x | $1.5B | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 5.3% | 3.3% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | -5.4% | 1.0% | 32.0x | $1.3B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | 26.2% | 7.8% | 31.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 63.0x | $399M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.4% | 58.6% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 51.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | 24.9% | 4.9% | 100.0% | 21.8% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 45.0x | $101.1B | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | 42.4% | 4.0% | 100.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 201.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 27.5% | 6.9% | 51.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 177.0x | $1.6B | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 18.6% | 4.7% | 60.7% | 14.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 202.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | -29.5% | 13.1% | 58.6% | 40.7% | 27.4% | 6.8% | 1.3% | - | $21.5B | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$ORLY O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC | 43 | 51 | 45 | 20 | 30.3x | 22.3x | -240.4% | 16.0% | 51.5% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 0.0% | - | $91.5B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 8.9% | 2.9% | 36.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.6x | - | REF |
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC (ORLY) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 42.9/100. It ranks #3139 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Direct cash return
Gregory D. Johnson
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
87,700
51
27
43
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for ORLY
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for ORLY.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 51 | 63 | -12DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 20 | 13 | +7ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 45 | 44 | +1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 27 | 20 | +7ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 43 | 44 | -1NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 79 | 91 | -12DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 9.9% vs WACC 8.9% (spread +1.0%)
GM 52% vs sector 36%, OM 20% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover 0.61x
Rev growth 10%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 16.4x, Net debt/EBITDA 8.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 42.9/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3139 out of 7,333 stocks. ORLY's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 51/100, ORLY shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -240.4% (sector avg: 8.9%), gross margins of 51.5% (sector avg: 36.2%), net margins of 14.6% (sector avg: 1.6%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 45/100, ORLY appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 30.29x, an EV/EBITDA of 22.31x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC's investment score of 27/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 10.2% vs. a sector average of 3.8% and a return on assets of 16.0% (sector: 2.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 20/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at 10.2% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.02 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
ORLY's stability score of 43/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.02. Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
ORLY carries a short interest score of 79/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. At $91.5B market cap (large-cap), O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC is a large-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3139 of 7,333 overall (57th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -240.4% trailing the 8.9% sector median and operating margins of 19.9% above the 3.9% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While ORLY currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Momentum (20) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 145% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 2800% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 42% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC (ORLY) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.9/100 at a current price of $94.11. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (51th percentile) and value (45th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (20th percentile) and investment (27th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (51/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.9/100 places it at rank #3139 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $91.5B market capitalization, O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC operates at meaningful scale within the Retail Trade sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue is growing at 10%, though momentum at the 20th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 52% (+15.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 20% (+15.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 14.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 28%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $94.11, O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 45/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 30.3x (a 41% premium to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 22.3x (at a premium), P/S of 4.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Gross margins of 52% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Revenue growth of 10% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
Return on assets of 16.0% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
The Reduce rating (composite 42.9/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Weak momentum (20th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.02, and a stability factor in the 43th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.02 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 43th percentile and quality factor at the 51th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 52% provide a buffer against cost pressures; large-cap scale ($91.5B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-240.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 42.9/100 (rank #3139 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (51/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 37/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 51/100. The ROIC-WACC spread of +1.0% is the primary signal of economic value creation. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being margin superiority at 17.4/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (17.4/20) and growth durability (12.6/20). GM 52% vs sector 36%, OM 20% vs sector 4%. Rev growth 10%, 10yr history. These pillars form the core of O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0.4/20) and economic value creation (8.1/20). Capital turnover 0.61x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 52% providing a solid profitability foundation, operating margins of 20% reflecting effective cost management, moderate revenue growth of 10%. The margin cascade from 52% gross to 20% operating to 14.6% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 51th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 52%, operating margins of 20%, net margins of 14.6%. Return metrics include ROE of -240.4% and ROA of 16.0%. Relative to the Retail Trade sector, gross margins are 15.3 percentage points above the sector median of 36%, and ROE of -240.4% compares to a sector median of 8.9%.
The balance sheet reflects revenue growth of 10%. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Elevated short interest (79th percentile) indicates that sophisticated market participants are betting against the stock.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Tariff costs are becoming unsustainable for automakers, and they are going to have to raise prices or cut features, said the president of Sonic Automotive.
O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) is one of the 14 Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy Right Now. On February 9, Morgan Stanley trimmed its target price on O’Reilly Automotive by 1.8% to $108 (from $110), while keeping its Overweight call on the stock. This price target update was a result of the firm reducing its […]
Let’s dig into the relative performance of Monro (NASDAQ:MNRO) and its peers as we unravel the now-completed Q4 auto parts retailer earnings season.
The aging U.S. vehicle fleet and high interest rates preventing new car purchases are creating strong tailwinds for the aftermarket auto parts industry in 2026. O'Reilly Automotive and AutoZone are positioned to benefit from increased repair demand, while Advance Auto Parts faces headwinds due to operational challenges. The sector offers recession-resistant growth as vehicle repairs remain a necessity regardless of economic conditions.
Advance Auto Parts stock fell 1.5% after its February 13 earnings report despite solid fourth-quarter results. The company reported comparable-store sales growth for the third consecutive quarter, returned to profitability with $0.50 EPS (vs. -$10.20 loss in Q4 2024), and expects 1-2% sales growth in 2026. The company's restructuring strategy—closing unprofitable stores and focusing on larger hub locations—has saved $70 million in annual operating costs. With a 1.7% dividend yield and valuation metrics lower than competitors, the stock remains attractive despite being down significantly from its 2021 peak of $241.91.