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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1891
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Transportation
$29.6B
Greg C. Gantt
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers.
Headcount
23.5K
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ODFL OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. | 51 | 70 | 38 | 50 | 38.2x | 23.2x | 25.9% | 20.0% | 51.0% | 25.8% | 19.5% | -6.2% | 0.8% | 29.0x | $29.6B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 50.8/100. It ranks #1891 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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HQ Base
THOMASVILLE, North Carolina
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for ODFL.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 70 | 80 | -10DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 50 | 51 | -1NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 38 | 37 | +1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 41 | 65 | -24DRAG |
| STABILITY | 36 | 34 | +2NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 9 | 1 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 707.0% vs WACC 9.7% (spread +697.3%)
GM 51% vs sector 53%, OM 26% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 36.63x
Rev growth -6%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 90211.0x, Net debt/EBITDA 0.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.8/100 at a current price of $195.37. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.8/100 places it at rank #1891 in our full universe.
Wide
Medium
Exemplary
Fair Value
Gross margins of 51% signal strong pricing power.
Returns on equity of 25.9% exceed cost of capital.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 38.2x leaves little room for execution misses.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 50.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1891 of 7,333 stocks, ODFL presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
ODFL earns a quality score of 70/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 25.9% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 51.0% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of 19.5% (sector avg: 7.7%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
With a value score of 38/100, ODFL appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 38.18x, an EV/EBITDA of 23.17x, a P/B ratio of 9.88x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
With an investment score of 41/100, ODFL exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -6.2% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of 20.0% (sector: 3.2%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
ODFL demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 50/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -6.2% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.13 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
ODFL's stability score of 36/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.'s short interest score of 9/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 29.00x). At $29.6B (large-cap), ODFL carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
ODFL offers a modest dividend yield of 0.8%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.4%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. is a large-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1891 of 7,333 overall (74th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 25.9% exceeding the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of 25.8% above the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While ODFL currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Quality (70) vs Short Int. (9) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 279% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 117% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) stock rose Wednesday after reporting Q4 2025 results that beat earnings expectations despite challenging market conditions. Revenue fell 5.7% YoY to $1.307 billion due to a 10.7% decline in LTL tons per day, but the company demonstrated pricing power with a 4.9% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel surcharges. EPS of $1.09 exceeded Street estimates of $1.06, and the company increased its quarterly dividend by 3.6%.
Old Dominion Freight Line reported a decline in revenue but beat earnings estimates, with the CEO citing ongoing economic softness. The company's financial results reflect the challenging economic environment.
Josh Brown and Sean Russo take a look at this freight stock.
XPO, a leading less-than-truckload carrier, has surged 40% year-to-date following strong Q4 earnings and an ISM manufacturing report showing expansion for the first time in over two years. The company beat revenue and EPS estimates while improving operational margins. With manufacturing volumes estimated 15-17% below normalized levels, a recovery could significantly boost XPO's revenue and profits, though the stock's P/E ratio of 50 suggests recovery tailwinds are already priced in.
XPO delivered strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates and improving operating margins through AI-driven productivity enhancements, despite challenging macroeconomic conditions in the trucking and manufacturing sectors.