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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4066
Positioning
Market Dominance
Financial
Financial Services
$5.0B
Craig W. Packer
Owl Rock Capital Corporation is a business development company. The fund makes investments in senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans. It seeks to invest in middle market companies based in the United States.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = OBDC ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$GBDC GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, Inc. | 64 | 91 | 89 | 57 | 22.5x | 6.6x | 5.7% | 1.7% | 100.0% | 64.3% | 25.4% | 116.4% | 12.6% | 128.0x | $3.7B | VS | |
$SAR SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. | 55 | 30 | 69 | 85 | 1.4x | 2.3x | 43.6% | 22.2% | - | - | 182.5% | -10.7% | 17.0% | 263.0x | $362M | VS | |
$CGBD Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | 53 | 72 | 67 | 40 | 14.2x | 6.1x | 6.8% | 2.0% | 100.0% | 73.2% | 24.8% | 18.0% | 13.6% | 111.0x | $911M | VS | |
$BBDC Barings BDC, Inc. | 53 | 25 | 31 | 79 | 23.4x | 10.1x | 9.8% | - | - | - | - | -103.3% | 13.6% | 139.0x | $921M | VS | |
$SLRC SLR Investment Corp. | 52 | 33 | 47 | 75 | 8.9x | 8.7x | 9.2% | 3.6% | - | - | 60.5% | 3.7% | 10.7% | 115.0x | $834M | VS | |
$TRIN Trinity Capital Inc. | 51 | 26 | 29 | 90 | 9.8x | 52.5x | 14.6% | 9.6% | - | - | 49.8% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 118.0x | $1.1B | VS | |
$CSWC CAPITAL SOUTHWEST CORP | 51 | 29 | 36 | 93 | 9.6x | 10.0x | 14.5% | 6.2% | - | - | 53.5% | 18.2% | 11.7% | 108.0x | $1.3B | VS | |
$ICMB Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. | 50 | 26 | 26 | 86 | - | - | -22.2% | - | - | - | -49.4% | -76.3% | 23.4% | 177.0x | $38M | VS | |
$FDUS FIDUS INVESTMENT Corp | 50 | 31 | 41 | 64 | 9.4x | 10.4x | 11.3% | 6.3% | - | - | 48.5% | 17.9% | 11.2% | 75.0x | $717M | VS | |
$GAIN GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION\DE | 49 | 30 | 27 | 90 | - | - | 9.5% | 23.6% | - | - | 423.3% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 96.0x | $551M | VS | |
$OBDC Blue Owl Capital Corp | 35 | 25 | 34 | 48 | 9.1x | 9.1x | 8.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 79.8% | 0.9% | 12.6% | 126.0x | $5.0B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 9.8x | 9.5x | 6.8% | 3.5% | 100.0% | 54.7% | 49.2% | -14.5% | 13.3% | 1.2x | - | REF |
Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 35.4/100. It ranks #4066 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Financial sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for OBDC.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 25 | 11 | +14ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 48 | 43 | +5NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 34 | 30 | +4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 24 | 16 | +8ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 42 | 32 | +10ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 37 | 32 | +5NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 0.0% vs WACC 5.3% (spread -5.3%)
GM 0% vs sector 100%, OM 0% vs sector 55%
Capital turnover 0.09x
Rev growth 1%, 4yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 65.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) as Avoid with a composite score of 35.4/100 at a current price of $11.69. The stock falls in the bottom quintile, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
Blue Owl Capital Corp holds a lower-quartile position (#32 of 38) within the Financial sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 35.4/100 places it at rank #4066 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Standard
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 126% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Blue Owl Capital Corp represents a avoid based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our quantitative model flags Blue Owl Capital Corp with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 35.4/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4066 of 7,333 stocks, OBDC falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
OBDC's quality score of 25/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 8.7% (sector avg: 6.8%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 100.0%), net margins of 79.8% (sector avg: 49.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 34/100, OBDC appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 9.11x, an EV/EBITDA of 9.12x, a P/B ratio of 0.79x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Blue Owl Capital Corp's investment score of 24/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 0.9% vs. a sector average of -14.5% and a return on assets of 3.8% (sector: 3.5%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
OBDC is currently showing below-average momentum at 48/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 0.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.86 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
OBDC's stability score of 42/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.86 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 126.00x (sector avg: 1.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
Blue Owl Capital Corp's short interest score of 37/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 126.00x). At $5.0B (mid-cap), OBDC carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Blue Owl Capital Corp offers an attractive dividend yield of 12.6%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 13.3%. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
Blue Owl Capital Corp is a mid-cap company in the Financial sector, ranked #32 of 38 in its sector (16th percentile) and #4066 of 7,333 overall (45th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 8.7% exceeding the 6.8% sector median and operating margins of 0.0% below the 54.7% sector average. This bottom-quartile standing highlights significant competitive headwinds within the Financial space.
While OBDC currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCIAL sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Investment (24) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
RANK #32 OF 38 IN FINANCIALS
EV/EBITDA IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
ROE 28% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Private capital manager Blue Owl's shares slid after its latest capital-return strategy, which involved selling assets from a small debt fund and permanently removing investor withdrawal options from an older fund, spooked investors. Analysts commented that the stock plunge was an "overreaction" and that the firm's valuation of the loans was accurate. Blue Owl's private lending business expanded significantly after its 2021 merger but has recently faced increased scrutiny from retail investors.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) receives a 'sell' rating due to concerns about underperformance as interest rates decline, despite its attractive 11.95% yield. The company's portfolio is heavily weighted towards floating-rate debt, making its net income vulnerable to rate cuts. While recent growth and stable distributions are positive, the historical total returns have lagged the S&P 500, and market conditions combined with reinvestment risks in a recessionary environment warrant caution.
Caprock Group LLC has acquired a new stake of 157,372 shares in Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) valued at approximately $2.01 million in the third quarter. This investment is accompanied by significant insider purchases, including CEO Craig Packer's acquisition of 83,200 shares worth $977,600 and VP Neena Reddy's purchase of 7,890 shares valued at $103,043. Analysts currently rate OBDC as a "Moderate Buy" with a consensus price target of $14.21, while the stock trades near $11.48.
Blue Owl Capital Inc., an alternative asset manager, is facing a shareholder lawsuit alleging its executives misled investors about the extent of redemptions in its private credit funds. The lawsuit claims that while executives publicly stated "no meaningful pressure" from redemptions, investors in Blue Owl Capital Corporation II (OBDC II) withdrew $150 million through the first nine months of 2025. The situation escalated with a proposed merger with OBDC, which would have resulted in losses for OBDC II shareholders, and was later called off, leading to a drop in Blue Owl's stock price.
Publicly traded private-credit funds (BDCs) are experiencing their worst year relative to the S&P 500 since 2020, leading investors to question their future amidst rate cuts, market shocks, and shrinking loan margins. While firms like Blue Owl and Blackstone have tried to reassure investors about portfolio health, challenges such as BDC stock depreciation affecting fund strategies and increased redemption requests indicate growing skepticism. This struggle is prompting a shift towards more investor-friendly, perpetually offered private vehicles like interval funds, which offer continuous fundraising without stock volatility.