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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4413
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Precious Metals
$3.4B
Christopher Gerteisen
We are an exploration stage company, and our flagship project is the Estelle Gold Project located in Alaska. Our principal executive office is Suite 5, 242 Hawthorn Road, Caulfield, Victoria 3161 Australia. Our registered office is located at Suite 5 on 242 Hawthorn Road in Caulfield, Australia. Our agent for service of process in the United States is our wholly-owned U.S. subsidiary Alaska Range Resources LLC, 1150 S Colony Way, Suite 3-440, Palmer, AK 99645.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | 15.8% | 6.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $38.7B | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | 13.1% | 6.5% | 58.3% | 18.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 4.9% | 29.0x | $46.0B | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | 10.7% | 6.1% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 11.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.0x | $104M | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | 19.6% | 15.7% | 74.8% | 47.5% | 26.2% | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | 15.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 21.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | 9.4% | 6.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.0x | $38.9B | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | 20.3% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 23.1% | -1.3% | 11.2% | 26.0x | $93.8B | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | 29.9% | 17.1% | 33.7% | 57.8% | 51.9% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 34.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | 11.1% | 4.8% | 52.8% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 38.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | 6.6% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $876M | VS | |
$NVA Nova Minerals Ltd | 32 | 33 | 41 | 10 | - | - | -43.5% | -39.5% | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.0x | $3.4B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.0% | 3.9% | 43.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 31.6/100. It ranks #4413 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Christopher Gerteisen
Chief Executive Officer
33
33
24
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for NVA
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for NVA.
View All RatingsInsufficient data for Financial Analysis
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 33 | 27 | +6ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 10 | 5 | +5NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 41 | 40 | +1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 33 | 37 | -4NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 24 | 13 | +11ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 54 | 65 | -11DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -43.5% (sector 4.0%)
GM N/A vs sector 43%, OM N/A vs sector 12%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth N/A, 2yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags Nova Minerals Ltd with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 31.6/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4413 of 7,333 stocks, NVA falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
NVA's quality score of 33/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -43.5% (sector avg: 4.0%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 41/100, NVA appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 3.64x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Nova Minerals Ltd's investment score of 33/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include a return on assets of -39.5% (sector: 3.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
Nova Minerals Ltd is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 10/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth data is not currently available, while a beta of 0.68 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
Nova Minerals Ltd registers a low stability score of 24/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.68 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
The short interest score of 54/100 for NVA suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. With a $3.4B market cap (mid-cap), Nova Minerals Ltd may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
Nova Minerals Ltd is a mid-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4413 of 7,333 overall (40th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -43.5% trailing the 4.0% sector median. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Mining peers.
While NVA currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the MINING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Momentum (10) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 1197% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Debt/Equity 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Div. Yield NaN% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF JUN 30, 2025 (Q1 FY2025)
We rate Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA) as Avoid with a composite score of 31.6/100 at a current price of $7.27. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (41th percentile) and investment (33th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (10th percentile) and stability (24th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (32/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
Nova Minerals Ltd holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 31.6/100 places it at rank #4413 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.4B in market capitalization, Nova Minerals Ltd is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Momentum indicators (10th percentile) suggest caution regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.
Margin data is not available for Nova Minerals Ltd, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.
At a current price of $7.27, Nova Minerals Ltd is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 41/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 3.6x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
A conservative balance sheet (0% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Avoid rating (composite 31.6/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Weak momentum (10th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
Below-average quality (33th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Nova Minerals Ltd. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (24th percentile) and weak quality scores (33th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (24th percentile); weak quality scores (33th percentile); low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 24th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate Nova Minerals Ltd's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-43.5%), weak asset returns (ROA -39.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Nova Minerals Ltd significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, Nova Minerals Ltd receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 31.6/100 (rank #4413 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (32/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 28/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Nova Minerals Ltd at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign Nova Minerals Ltd a meaningful economic moat, scoring 32/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 14/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (14/20) and margin superiority (10/20). Rev growth N/A, 2yr history. GM N/A vs sector 43%, OM N/A vs sector 12%. These pillars form the core of Nova Minerals Ltd's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and economic value creation (1.4/20). Capital turnover N/A. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect Nova Minerals Ltd's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers are not clearly identifiable from current fundamentals. This may reflect a company in transition, a cyclical downturn, or structural challenges in the business model. We assign a quality factor of 33/100 which further underscores our concern regarding earnings sustainability.
Return metrics include ROE of -43.5% and ROA of -39.5%. Relative to the Mining sector, sector comparison data is limited, and ROE of -43.5% compares to a sector median of 4.0%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 0%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting Nova Minerals Ltd in a relatively stronger balance sheet position. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Nova Minerals said it plans to redomicile to the US following the loss of its foreign private issuer status and it will seek the remaining 15% interest in its Estelle project in Alaska.
Nova Minerals has brushed off an attack by US short seller Spruce Point Management, saying its claims were not backed by the facts.
Critical minerals are no longer a niche corner of the resources sector. Export controls, trade tensions and the rapid build-out of electric vehicles, renewable energy and defence technologies have pushed materials such as rare earths, lithium chemicals and battery intermediates into the centre...
Nova Minerals (NVA) said late Tuesday it plans to undertake a corporate reorganization following the
The Pentagon is investing nearly $1 billion to rebuild domestic antimony stockpiles after China reduced export shipments by 97%, creating strategic opportunities for Western antimony developers in defense and critical minerals sectors.