NOG

We rate NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. (NOG) as Avoid with a composite score of 39.0/100 at a current price of $26.92. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (43th percentile) and investment (42th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (22th percentile) and value (27th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (37/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 39.0/100 places it at rank #3673 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.4B in market capitalization, NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -1% combined with momentum at the 22th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 82% (+38.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 24% (+12.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 13.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 16%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $26.92, NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 27/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 6.7x (a 51% discount to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 7.1x (at a premium), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 1.1x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.68), significant leverage (105% debt-to-equity). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.68); significant leverage (105% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 43th percentile and quality factor at the 37th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 82% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 7.14% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 18.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 105%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 7.14% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 39.0/100 (rank #3673 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (37/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 34/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.