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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4832
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Utilities
$1.8B
Matthew K. Schatzman
NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas; and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development of Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville, southern Texas.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | 29.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | -16.9% | 4.9% | 22.0x | $2.8B | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | 24.4% | 20.6% | 67.0% | 30.9% | 32.8% | -16.6% | 7.6% | 0.0x | $1.3B | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | 17.5% | 12.2% | 54.8% | 36.8% | 31.7% | 2.0% | 10.9% | 40.0x | $1.5B | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | 24.7% | 16.6% | 63.1% | 61.5% | 53.8% | -7.2% | 3.3% | 30.0x | $2.6B | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | 8.9% | 5.5% | 64.4% | 22.1% | 13.3% | -10.7% | 18.0% | 53.0x | $465M | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | 5.8% | 1.5% | 61.1% | 20.7% | 3.2% | -13.7% | 3.5% | 202.0x | $44.7B | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | 35.2% | 10.8% | 84.4% | 44.8% | 26.4% | -18.0% | 5.6% | 81.0x | $8.5B | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | 26.7% | 15.6% | 100.0% | 53.7% | 50.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 47.0x | $753M | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | 32.7% | 19.3% | 58.8% | 40.9% | 38.0% | 2.5% | 30.1% | 59.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | 7.0% | 4.0% | 43.9% | 15.5% | 10.0% | -15.9% | 5.6% | 0.0x | $12.5B | VS | |
$NEXT NextDecade Corp. | 22 | 9 | 10 | 9 | - | - | -45.2% | -8.9% | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 406.0x | $1.8B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.5% | 55.1% | 17.6% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0x | - | REF |
NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 21.9/100. It ranks #4832 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Matthew K. Schatzman
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
60
9
20
22
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for NEXT
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for NEXT.
View All RatingsInsufficient data for Financial Analysis
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 9 | 0 | +9ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 9 | 6 | +3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 10 | 5 | +5NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 20 | 4 | +16ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 22 | 18 | +4NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 21 | 9 | +12ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -0.9% vs WACC 2.2% (spread -3.0%)
GM N/A vs sector 55%, OM N/A vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.00x
Rev growth N/A, 10yr history
Interest coverage -1.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags NextDecade Corp. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 21.9/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4832 of 7,333 stocks, NEXT falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
NextDecade Corp. registers a weak quality score of just 9/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of -45.2% (sector avg: 11.9%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
NEXT registers a value score of just 10/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 0.73x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
NextDecade Corp.'s investment score of 20/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include a return on assets of -8.9% (sector: 3.5%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
NextDecade Corp. is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 9/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth data is not currently available, while a beta of 1.11 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
NextDecade Corp. registers a low stability score of 22/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.11 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 406.00x (sector avg: 1.0x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
NextDecade Corp.'s short interest score of 21/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 406.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $1.8B (small-cap), NEXT carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
NextDecade Corp. is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4832 of 7,333 overall (34th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -45.2% trailing the 11.9% sector median. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While NEXT currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Quality (9) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 479% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Debt/Equity 39317% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
Div. Yield 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) as Avoid with a composite score of 21.9/100 at a current price of $5.29. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (22th percentile) and investment (20th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (9th percentile) and momentum (9th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (13/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
NextDecade Corp. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 21.9/100 places it at rank #4832 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.8B in market capitalization, NextDecade Corp. is a small-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Momentum indicators (9th percentile) suggest caution regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.
Margin data is not available for NextDecade Corp., which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.
At a current price of $5.29, NextDecade Corp. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 10/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 0.7x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
The stock may offer contrarian value if near-term headwinds prove transitory — the current weakness in factor scores may reverse if business fundamentals stabilize.
The Avoid rating (composite 21.9/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (406% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Weak momentum (9th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
Below-average quality (9th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to NextDecade Corp.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (406% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (22th percentile), weak quality scores (9th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (406% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (22th percentile); weak quality scores (9th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 22th percentile and quality factor at the 9th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.
We rate NextDecade Corp.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-45.2%), elevated leverage (406% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA -8.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — NextDecade Corp. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, NextDecade Corp. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 21.9/100 (rank #4832 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (13/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 14/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on NextDecade Corp. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign NextDecade Corp. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 13/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -3.0% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 10/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (10/20) and economic value creation (1.6/20). GM N/A vs sector 55%, OM N/A vs sector 18%. ROIC -0.9% vs WACC 2.2% (spread -3.0%). These pillars form the core of NextDecade Corp.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and growth durability (0/20). Capital turnover 0.00x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect NextDecade Corp.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers are not clearly identifiable from current fundamentals. This may reflect a company in transition, a cyclical downturn, or structural challenges in the business model. We assign a quality factor of 9/100 which further underscores our concern regarding earnings sustainability.
Return metrics include ROE of -45.2% and ROA of -8.9%. Relative to the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, sector comparison data is limited, and ROE of -45.2% compares to a sector median of 11.9%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 406%, which may limit financial flexibility. The sector median D/E is 1%, putting NextDecade Corp. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
NextDecade has secured a significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) sale and purchase agreement from TotalEnergies. This deal represents a major development for NextDecade, bolstering its financial outlook and the progression of its LNG projects. The agreement highlights increasing global demand for LNG and strengthens NextDecade's position in the energy market.
NextDecade Corporation's stock (NASDAQ:NEXT) plummeted 55% in six months after InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis in July 2025 flagged it as substantially overvalued at $11.54. The stock subsequently dropped to $5.20, confirming InvestingPro's prediction which indicated a fair price closer to $5.78. This decline was further supported by worsening financial health, a downgrade from Morgan Stanley, and the CFO's resignation.
This article details precision trading strategies for Nextdecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT) based on AI models, highlighting a near-term strong sentiment contrasting with persistent mid and long-term weakness. It identifies key support and resistance levels, offering specific entry, target, and stop-loss zones for position, momentum breakout, and risk hedging strategies. The analysis emphasizes an exceptional 95.5:1 risk-reward setup, targeting a significant gain with minimal risk.
Aerospace Co. Ltd. Hanwha, a major shareholder in NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT), purchased 800,000 shares of the company's stock on December 12th for $4,432,000, increasing its direct ownership to over 26.4 million shares. This transaction is part of a larger accumulation strategy by Hanwha, which acquired nearly 3.85 million shares for approximately $22.8 million between November 28th and December 12th. NextDecade's stock performance and institutional trading activity are also detailed, alongside recent analyst ratings.
Wood, an engineering and consulting firm, has secured a 10-year maintenance contract with NextDecade Corp. for the Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas. This agreement expands Wood's LNG portfolio, creates over 100 local jobs, and reinforces its commitment to supporting U.S. LNG export capabilities by ensuring safe and reliable operations at the site.