NE

We rate Noble Corp plc (NE) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.6/100 at a current price of $46.15. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (54th percentile) and value (51th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Noble Corp plc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.6/100 places it at rank #1767 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $4.1B in market capitalization, Noble Corp plc is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 15%, though momentum at the 54th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 36% (-7.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 15% (+2.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 16%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $46.15, Noble Corp plc is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 51/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 37.9x (a 176% premium to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 14.8x (at a premium), P/B of 1.6x, P/S of 2.2x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Noble Corp plc. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.54). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.54). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 47th percentile and quality factor at the 44th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 8.97% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Noble Corp plc's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 4.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 66%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Noble Corp plc falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 8.97% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Noble Corp plc receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.6/100 (rank #1767 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Noble Corp plc. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.