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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
20.4%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.89%
Trailing Yield
$1.89
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
28%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 55.4/100, ranked #86 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 74/100, Momentum 65/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Marathon Petroleum Corp Do?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Michael J. Hennigan and employs approximately 17,800 people, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. With a market capitalization of $70.1B, MPC is one of the prominent companies in the Energy sector.
As of April 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 55.4/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.MPC ranks #86 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, Marathon Petroleum Corp ranks #15 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
MPC Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) currently trades at $222.62. The stock lost $0.90 (0.4%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for MPC is $238.77, which means the stock is currently trading -6.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $115.10, putting the stock 93.4% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 2.2M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is MPC Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) carries a value factor score of 74/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 14.71x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a discount of 25%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 3.00x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.53x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, MPC trades at 10.41x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, Marathon Petroleum Corp appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
Marathon Petroleum Corp Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 20.4%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 5.9% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, Marathon Petroleum Corp reports gross margins of 9.2%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 5.1% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 3.6%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Revenue growth is running at -8.2% on a trailing basis, compared to -1.2% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
MPC Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Marathon Petroleum Corp has a debt-to-equity ratio of 249.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.26x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $32.84B. Cash and equivalents stand at $2.65B.
MPC has a beta of 0.90, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for Marathon Petroleum Corp is 68/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
Marathon Petroleum Corp Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $135.23B and earnings per share (EPS) of $13.24. Net income for the quarter was $4.91B. Gross margin was 9.2%. Operating income came in at $6.95B.
In FY 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $132.70B and earnings per share (EPS) of $13.24. Net income for the quarter was $5.88B. Gross margin was 10.0%. Revenue grew -5.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $8.29B.
In Q3 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $34.81B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.51. Net income for the quarter was $1.94B. Gross margin was 10.4%. Revenue grew -0.8% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $2.71B.
In Q2 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $33.80B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.96. Net income for the quarter was $1.61B. Gross margin was 11.2%. Revenue grew -10.9% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $2.20B.
Over the past 8 quarters, Marathon Petroleum Corp has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $37.91B to $135.23B. Investors analyzing MPC stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
MPC Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.9%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in MPC stock would generate approximately $$189.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Energy sector average dividend yield of 1.9%, meaning MPC offers above-average income for its sector.
MPC Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has a momentum factor score of 65/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 36/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 26/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
MPC vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing MPC against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full MPC vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Marathon Petroleum Corp stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
MPC Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy MPC? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for Marathon Petroleum Corp rests on several quantitative strengths. The value score of 74/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 65/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 68/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 55.4/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on MPC stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) receives a Hold rating, driven by a mixed assessment of its financial performance and strategic positioning within the energy sector. While the company exhibits attractive valuation multiples and strong profitability metrics like ROE compared to its peers, concerns arise from its negative free cash flow, high debt levels, and revenue decline. The Hold rating reflects a balanced view, acknowledging both the potential upside from its refining and midstream operations and the downside risks associated with its financial leverage and volatile industry dynamics.
The most critical takeaway is that MPC's future performance hinges on its ability to improve free cash flow generation and manage its debt burden effectively. While the company's refining capacity and midstream assets provide a solid foundation, its financial health and capital allocation decisions will ultimately determine its long-term success. Investors should closely monitor MPC's progress in these areas before considering a more bullish or bearish stance.
Business Strategy & Overview
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates as an integrated downstream energy company, primarily focused on refining, marketing, and midstream activities. The company's Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, selling these products to wholesale customers, spot market buyers, and independent entrepreneurs operating branded outlets like Marathon and ARCO. This segment's profitability is heavily influenced by refining margins, which are subject to fluctuations based on crude oil prices, product demand, and regional supply dynamics. The Midstream segment, on the other hand, focuses on transporting, storing, and distributing crude oil and refined products through pipelines, terminals, and other logistics assets. This segment also handles natural gas gathering, processing, and transportation, as well as natural gas liquids fractionation and marketing.
MPC's strategic positioning involves leveraging its extensive refining capacity and integrated midstream network to capture value across the downstream energy value chain. The company aims to optimize its refining operations to maximize yields and minimize costs, while also expanding its midstream infrastructure to enhance its logistics capabilities and access to diverse markets. A key aspect of its strategy is maintaining a strong presence in key refining regions, including the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast, allowing it to capitalize on regional demand patterns and supply advantages. Furthermore, MPC focuses on maintaining and expanding its branded retail network, providing a stable outlet for its refined products and enhancing brand recognition.
The company's product pipeline primarily revolves around optimizing its existing refining processes and developing new technologies to improve efficiency and reduce emissions. MPC invests in research and development to enhance its refining capabilities, improve product quality, and comply with evolving environmental regulations. Additionally, the company explores opportunities to expand its midstream infrastructure through strategic acquisitions and organic growth projects, aiming to increase its capacity to transport and store crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids. These investments are crucial for maintaining MPC's competitive edge and adapting to changing market conditions.
Within the broader industry context, MPC operates in a highly competitive and cyclical market. The refining industry is characterized by intense competition, fluctuating margins, and significant capital expenditures. MPC competes with other major refiners, as well as smaller independent players, for market share and access to crude oil supplies. The midstream sector is also competitive, with numerous companies vying for pipeline capacity and terminal storage. MPC's success depends on its ability to efficiently manage its operations, adapt to changing market dynamics, and maintain a strong financial position.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-8.2%
Sector: -1.2%
+600% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Marathon Petroleum's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. While the company possesses certain competitive advantages, they are not strong enough to create a Wide moat. The primary sources of its narrow moat are cost advantages and efficient scale within specific geographic regions.
MPC's cost advantages stem from the scale and integration of its refining operations. Its large refineries benefit from economies of scale, allowing it to spread fixed costs over a larger production volume. Furthermore, its integrated midstream network provides a logistical advantage, reducing transportation costs and enhancing access to crude oil supplies. However, these cost advantages are not insurmountable, as other large refiners also benefit from similar economies of scale and integrated operations. Moreover, refining margins are subject to significant fluctuations, which can erode MPC's cost advantage during periods of low profitability.
Efficient scale plays a role in certain regional markets where MPC has a dominant presence. In these areas, the company's refining capacity and distribution network create a barrier to entry for new competitors. However, this advantage is limited to specific geographic regions and does not extend across the entire market. Furthermore, existing competitors can expand their operations or build new refineries, potentially eroding MPC's efficient scale advantage over time.
MPC does not possess significant network effects or switching costs. The company's refined products are largely commodities, and customers can easily switch to alternative suppliers. While MPC's branded retail network provides some degree of customer loyalty, it is not strong enough to create a significant switching cost. Similarly, the company's midstream assets do not generate strong network effects, as pipelines and terminals are often interconnected and accessible to multiple users.
Intangible assets, such as brand recognition and proprietary technology, also contribute marginally to MPC's narrow moat. The Marathon and ARCO brands have some value in the retail market, but they are not as strong as those of some other consumer brands. MPC's refining technology is also not significantly differentiated from that of its competitors. While the company invests in research and development, its technological advancements are typically incremental and do not create a sustainable competitive advantage.
In conclusion, MPC's narrow moat is based on a combination of cost advantages and efficient scale within specific geographic regions. However, these advantages are not insurmountable and are subject to erosion from competition, fluctuating refining margins, and evolving market dynamics. Therefore, while MPC possesses some competitive advantages, they are not strong enough to warrant a Wide moat rating.
Financial Health & Profitability
Marathon Petroleum's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company demonstrates strong profitability metrics compared to the sector, its revenue growth and free cash flow generation raise concerns. The company's revenue has declined by 8.2% over the trailing twelve months (TTM), contrasting with a sector decline of only 1.7%. This suggests that MPC is underperforming its peers in terms of revenue generation. However, its Return on Equity (ROE) of 20.4% significantly exceeds the sector average of 6.9%, indicating superior profitability relative to equity.
Examining the quarterly financial history reveals a volatile revenue and net income trend. Revenue peaked in FY2023 at $148.38B but has since declined to $132.70B in FY2025 (TTM). Net income also shows significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $11.17B in FY2023 before dropping to $5.88B in FY2025 (TTM). This volatility reflects the cyclical nature of the refining industry and the impact of fluctuating crude oil prices and refining margins. The gross margin and operating margin have also followed a similar trend, peaking in FY2023 and declining in subsequent periods.
A significant concern is MPC's negative free cash flow (FCF) of -$2.37B (TTM). This contrasts sharply with the positive FCF of $6.06B in FY2024. The negative FCF indicates that the company is not generating enough cash from its operations to cover its capital expenditures and other cash outflows. This could put pressure on its balance sheet and limit its ability to invest in future growth opportunities. The company's current ratio of 1.26 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, but the negative FCF raises questions about its long-term financial sustainability.
MPC's balance sheet is characterized by a high level of debt. The company's total debt stands at $32.84B, while its total cash is only $2.65B. This results in a high debt-to-equity ratio of 249.00, significantly exceeding the sector average of 55.00. The high debt level increases the company's financial risk and makes it more vulnerable to adverse economic conditions. While the company has been actively managing its debt, the high leverage remains a concern.
In summary, MPC's financial health is a mixed bag. While the company exhibits strong profitability metrics like ROE, its declining revenue, negative free cash flow, and high debt levels raise concerns. The volatile nature of the refining industry and the company's high leverage make it vulnerable to adverse market conditions. Investors should closely monitor MPC's progress in improving its free cash flow generation and managing its debt burden.
Valuation Assessment
Marathon Petroleum's valuation presents an interesting case, appearing relatively attractive compared to its sector based on certain multiples, but requiring deeper scrutiny given its financial health and recent performance. The company's P/E ratio of 17.6x is slightly below the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the market is pricing MPC at a modest discount relative to its earnings. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.1x is significantly lower than the sector average of 3.5x, indicating a potentially undervalued enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
However, these seemingly attractive multiples must be considered in the context of MPC's recent financial performance. The company's negative free cash flow (FCF) casts a shadow on its valuation. Traditional FCF-based valuation methods would be difficult to apply given the negative value. This suggests that the market may be discounting MPC's future cash flow potential due to concerns about its ability to generate positive FCF consistently. Furthermore, the company's high debt levels increase its financial risk and could further depress its valuation.
Comparing MPC's valuation to its historical performance is also crucial. The company's earnings have been highly volatile in recent years, reflecting the cyclical nature of the refining industry. While MPC's earnings were strong in FY2023, they have declined in subsequent periods. This volatility makes it difficult to assess the company's long-term earnings potential and complicates the valuation process. Investors should consider the potential for future earnings fluctuations when evaluating MPC's valuation.
The company's Investment score of 36/100, as per the BCR proprietary quant model, also raises concerns about its capital allocation and growth prospects. This score suggests that MPC may not be effectively investing in future growth opportunities or generating attractive returns on its invested capital. This could further depress its valuation and limit its long-term upside potential.
Considering all these factors, MPC's valuation appears to be fair. While the company's P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are attractive compared to the sector, its negative free cash flow, high debt levels, and volatile earnings history warrant caution. The market may be appropriately discounting MPC's valuation to reflect these risks. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making an investment decision.
Ultimately, MPC's valuation hinges on its ability to improve its financial performance and generate positive free cash flow consistently. If the company can successfully manage its debt, optimize its operations, and capitalize on future growth opportunities, its valuation could potentially increase. However, if its financial performance continues to deteriorate, its valuation could face further downward pressure.
Risk & Uncertainty
Marathon Petroleum faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of refining margins. Refining margins are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including crude oil prices, product demand, and regional supply dynamics. Fluctuations in these factors can lead to significant swings in refining margins, which can directly impact MPC's profitability. A prolonged period of low refining margins could put pressure on the company's earnings and cash flow.
Another key risk is the impact of environmental regulations. The refining industry is subject to stringent environmental regulations, which require significant capital expenditures for compliance. Changes in environmental regulations could increase MPC's compliance costs and potentially limit its refining capacity. Furthermore, the increasing focus on renewable energy sources and the transition away from fossil fuels could reduce demand for MPC's refined products over the long term.
MPC also faces risks related to its midstream operations. Disruptions to pipeline infrastructure, such as accidents or natural disasters, could interrupt the flow of crude oil and refined products, impacting MPC's ability to supply its refineries and deliver products to its customers. Furthermore, changes in energy production patterns could affect the demand for MPC's midstream services. For example, a decline in crude oil production in a particular region could reduce the volume of crude oil transported through MPC's pipelines.
The company's high debt levels also pose a significant risk. MPC's high debt-to-equity ratio increases its financial leverage and makes it more vulnerable to adverse economic conditions. A decline in earnings or cash flow could make it difficult for the company to service its debt obligations, potentially leading to financial distress. Furthermore, rising interest rates could increase MPC's borrowing costs and further strain its financial resources.
Finally, MPC faces competition from other refiners and midstream operators. The refining industry is highly competitive, with numerous companies vying for market share. MPC competes with other major refiners, as well as smaller independent players, for access to crude oil supplies and customers for its refined products. Similarly, the midstream sector is also competitive, with numerous companies vying for pipeline capacity and terminal storage. Increased competition could put pressure on MPC's margins and market share.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWMarathon Petroleum's attractive valuation multiples, particularly its low EV/EBITDA ratio, suggest that the market is undervaluing its assets and earnings potential.
BULL VIEWThe company's integrated refining and midstream operations provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to capture value across the downstream energy value chain and benefit from economies of scale.
BULL VIEWMPC's strong Return on Equity (ROE) demonstrates its ability to generate superior returns on invested capital compared to its peers, indicating efficient management and profitable operations.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWMarathon Petroleum's negative free cash flow and high debt levels raise concerns about its financial sustainability and ability to invest in future growth opportunities.
BEAR VIEWThe company's declining revenue and volatile earnings history reflect the cyclical nature of the refining industry and its vulnerability to fluctuating crude oil prices and refining margins.
BEAR VIEWIncreasing environmental regulations and the transition to renewable energy sources pose a long-term threat to Marathon Petroleum's business model and demand for its refined products.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score MPC and 4,400+ other equities.
Marathon Petroleum Corp exhibits a 67% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
5.9%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
9.2%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
5.1%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
3.6%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield1.89%
Yield Delta+0%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $189 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
