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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1580
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Restaurants, Hotels, Motels
$70.5B
Anthony G. Capuano
Marriott International, Inc. operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, and timeshare properties worldwide. The company operates through U.S. and Canada, and International segments. As of February 15, 2022, it operated approximately 7,989 properties under 30 hotel brands in 139 countries and territories.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = MAR ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | 29.1% | 5.1% | 46.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 153.0x | $1.5B | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 5.3% | 3.3% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | -5.4% | 1.0% | 32.0x | $1.3B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | 26.2% | 7.8% | 31.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 63.0x | $399M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.4% | 58.6% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 51.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | 24.9% | 4.9% | 100.0% | 21.8% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 45.0x | $101.1B | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | 42.4% | 4.0% | 100.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 201.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 27.5% | 6.9% | 51.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 177.0x | $1.6B | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 18.6% | 4.7% | 60.7% | 14.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 202.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | -29.5% | 13.1% | 58.6% | 40.7% | 27.4% | 6.8% | 1.3% | - | $21.5B | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$MAR MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ | 53 | 34 | 53 | 74 | 33.6x | 21.4x | -126.7% | 10.0% | 22.0% | 16.7% | 10.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | - | $70.5B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 8.9% | 2.9% | 36.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.6x | - | REF |
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.7/100. It ranks #1580 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Direct cash return
Anthony G. Capuano
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
377,000
34
34
68
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for MAR
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for MAR.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 34 | 20 | +14ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 74 | 83 | -9DRAG |
| VALUATION | 53 | 60 | -7DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 34 | 52 | -18DRAG |
| STABILITY | 68 | 73 | -5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 43 | 42 | +1NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -126.7% (sector 8.9%)
GM 22% vs sector 36%, OM 17% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 1%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -0.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ a Hold rating, with a composite score of 52.7/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1580 of 7,333 stocks, MAR presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
MAR's quality score of 34/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -126.7% (sector avg: 8.9%), gross margins of 22.0% (sector avg: 36.2%), net margins of 10.6% (sector avg: 1.6%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
MAR's value score of 53/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 33.65x, an EV/EBITDA of 21.41x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/'s investment score of 34/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 0.8% vs. a sector average of 3.8% and a return on assets of 10.0% (sector: 2.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
MAR shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 74/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 0.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.06 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
MAR shows good financial stability with a score of 68/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.06. This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 43/100 for MAR suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. With a $70.5B market cap (large-cap), MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
MAR offers a modest dividend yield of 1.0%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ is a large-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1580 of 7,333 overall (78th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -126.7% trailing the 8.9% sector median and operating margins of 16.7% above the 3.9% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While MAR currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Quality (34) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 135% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 1523% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 39% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.7/100 at a current price of $343.17. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (74th percentile) and stability (68th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (34th percentile) and quality (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (29/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.7/100 places it at rank #1580 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $70.5B market capitalization, MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ operates at meaningful scale within the Retail Trade sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 1% and favorable momentum (74th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 22% (-14.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 17% (+12.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 48%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.
At a current price of $343.17, MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 53/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 33.6x (a 57% premium to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 21.4x (at a premium), P/S of 3.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Positive momentum (74th percentile) indicates institutional accumulation and favorable technical dynamics that tend to persist in the intermediate term.
Return on assets of 10.0% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
Below-average quality (34th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.06, and a stability factor in the 68th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (34th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 68th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (68th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($70.5B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-126.7%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.7/100 (rank #1580 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (29/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 52/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ a meaningful economic moat, scoring 29/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 10.7/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (10.7/20) and financial resilience (10.3/20). Rev growth 1%, 10yr history. Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -0.2x. These pillars form the core of MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include economic value creation (0/20) and reinvestment efficiency (0/20). ROE proxy -126.7% (sector 8.9%). Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include operating margins of 17% reflecting effective cost management. The margin cascade from 22% gross to 17% operating to 10.6% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 34th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 22%, operating margins of 17%, net margins of 10.6%. Return metrics include ROE of -126.7% and ROA of 10.0%. Relative to the Retail Trade sector, gross margins are 14.2 percentage points below the sector median of 36%, and ROE of -126.7% compares to a sector median of 8.9%.
The balance sheet reflects a dividend yield of 1.00%, revenue growth of 1%. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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