KMX

We rate CARMAX INC (KMX) as Avoid with a composite score of 38.0/100 at a current price of $43.15. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (46th percentile) and stability (39th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (25th percentile) and momentum (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (20/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

CARMAX INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 38.0/100 places it at rank #3785 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $5.7B in market capitalization, CARMAX INC is a mid-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -17% combined with momentum at the 32th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 11% (-25.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (-1.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 1.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 17%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $43.15, CARMAX INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 46/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.8x (a 40% discount to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 24.7x (at a premium), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to CARMAX INC. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (274% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (39th percentile), weak quality scores (25th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (274% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (39th percentile); weak quality scores (25th percentile); the combination of leverage (274% D/E) and thin margins (1.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 39th percentile and quality factor at the 25th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate CARMAX INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (274% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — CARMAX INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, CARMAX INC receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 38.0/100 (rank #3785 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (20/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 35/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on CARMAX INC at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.