HUBG

We rate Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.6/100 at a current price of $41.07. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (61th percentile) and quality (55th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (37th percentile) and investment (40th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (54/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Hub Group, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.6/100 places it at rank #1921 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.1B in market capitalization, Hub Group, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (61th percentile), revenue contraction of -5% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 85% (+29.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (-13.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 3%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $41.07, Hub Group, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 47/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 25.3x (a 49% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.7x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 0.7x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Hub Group, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (37th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (37th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 37th percentile and quality factor at the 55th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 85% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (15% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Hub Group, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 6.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 15%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Hub Group, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.45% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Hub Group, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.6/100 (rank #1921 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (54/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Hub Group, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.