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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3445
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Personal Services
$2.1B
Stephen M. Scherr
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. The company provides vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from company-owned, licensee, and franchisee locations. It also sells vehicles; and operates Firefly vehicle rental brand and Hertz 24/7 car sharing business in international markets.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = HTZ ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | 21.3% | 18.6% | 64.5% | 35.7% | 39.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $644M | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | 15.4% | 12.6% | 38.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | -39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $439M | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 28.1% | 16.8% | 48.1% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 78.6% | 0.0% | 37.0x | $220M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | 12.4% | 2.9% | 100.0% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 264.0x | $19.4B | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.6% | 7.8% | 43.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $857M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 18.0% | 4.6% | 97.3% | 52.2% | 32.7% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 271.0x | $8.0B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | 9.4% | 4.9% | 55.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 7.0x | $78.0B | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | 22.1% | 15.6% | 62.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 9.0x | $56.6B | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 21.4% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 27.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$HTZ HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC | 41 | 26 | 54 | 63 | 7.5x | 1.4x | 311.6% | -8.2% | 37.5% | -24.2% | -20.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% | - | $2.1B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.3% | 1.9% | 59.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC (HTZ) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 40.8/100. It ranks #3445 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Direct cash return
Stephen M. Scherr
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
25,000
26
38
40
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for HTZ
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for HTZ.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 26 | 10 | +16ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 63 | 70 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 54 | 58 | -4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 38 | 65 | -27DRAG |
| STABILITY | 40 | 38 | +2NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 20 | 5 | +15ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 4.3% (spread -3.4%)
GM 38% vs sector 60%, OM -24% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover 0.13x
Rev growth 5%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 73.3x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 40.8/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3445 out of 7,333 stocks. HTZ's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
HTZ's quality score of 26/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 311.6% (sector avg: 5.3%), gross margins of 37.5% (sector avg: 59.6%), net margins of -20.5% (sector avg: 2.3%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
HTZ's value score of 54/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 7.51x, an EV/EBITDA of 1.38x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC's investment score of 38/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 5.3% vs. a sector average of 7.8% and a return on assets of -8.2% (sector: 1.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
HTZ demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 63/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 5.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.88 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
HTZ's stability score of 40/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.88. Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC's short interest score of 20/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. At $2.1B (mid-cap), HTZ carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC is a mid-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3445 of 7,333 overall (53rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 311.6% exceeding the 5.3% sector median and operating margins of -24.2% below the 3.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While HTZ currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Short Int. (20) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 88% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 5769% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 37% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC (HTZ) as a Reduce with a composite score of 40.8/100 at a current price of $4.45. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (63th percentile) and value (54th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (26th percentile) and investment (38th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (13/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 40.8/100 places it at rank #3445 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.1B in market capitalization, HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC is a mid-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 5% and favorable momentum (63th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 38% (-22.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -24% (-27.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -20.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -55%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $4.45, HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 54/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 7.5x (a 68% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 1.4x (discounted to peers), P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
Returns on equity of 311.6% exceed the cost of equity for most companies, indicating genuine shareholder value creation and a reinvestment engine that compounds wealth over time.
The Reduce rating (composite 40.8/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Thin net margins of -20.5% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Below-average quality (26th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -20.5%), weak quality scores (26th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -20.5%); weak quality scores (26th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 40th percentile and quality factor at the 26th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.
We rate HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -8.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 40.8/100 (rank #3445 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (13/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC a meaningful economic moat, scoring 13/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -3.4% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 5.6/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (5.6/20) and margin superiority (3.4/20). Rev growth 5%, 10yr history. GM 38% vs sector 60%, OM -24% vs sector 4%. These pillars form the core of HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and financial resilience (1.7/20). Capital turnover 0.13x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 38% providing a solid profitability foundation, moderate revenue growth of 5%, returns on equity of 311.6% driving shareholder value creation. The margin cascade from 38% gross to -24% operating to -20.5% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 26th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 38%, operating margins of -24%, net margins of -20.5%. Return metrics include ROE of 311.6% and ROA of -8.2%. Relative to the Services sector, gross margins are 22.0 percentage points below the sector median of 60%, and ROE of 311.6% compares to a sector median of 5.3%.
The balance sheet reflects revenue growth of 5%. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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Five months after Hertz partnered with Amazon to sell used cars online, the results have been disappointing. Despite initial optimism, Hertz shares have fallen nearly 10% since the August 2025 deal announcement, while the company faces mounting financial challenges including a 332% increase in accumulated depreciation, declining revenue, and negative free cash flow. The partnership has failed to reverse Hertz's downward trajectory, with analysts maintaining a consensus Reduce rating and short interest at 18.41%.
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