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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2554
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Transportation
$649M
Michael J. Gerdin
Heartland Express, Inc. operates as a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier in the United States and Canada. It primarily provides asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers from Washington to Florida and New England to California.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HTLD HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC | 47 | 39 | 43 | 57 | - | 259.5x | -5.5% | -3.4% | 41.8% | -4.8% | -4.8% | -28.5% | 0.9% | 62.0x | $649M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC (HTLD) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 46.6/100. It ranks #2554 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for HTLD.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 39 | 34 | +5NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 57 | 61 | -4NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 43 | 44 | -1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 35 | 49 | -14DRAG |
| STABILITY | 45 | 46 | -1NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 31 | 23 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -3.8% vs WACC 8.3% (spread -12.1%)
GM 42% vs sector 53%, OM -5% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 1.29x
Rev growth -28%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -2.5x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC (HTLD) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.6/100 at a current price of $10.84. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.6/100 places it at rank #2554 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 42% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 46.6/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2554 out of 7,333 stocks. HTLD's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
HTLD's quality score of 39/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -5.5% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 41.8% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of -4.8% (sector avg: 7.7%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 43/100, HTLD appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 259.47x, a P/B ratio of 1.17x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC's investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -28.5% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of -3.4% (sector: 3.2%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
HTLD demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 57/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -28.5% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.86 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
With a stability score of 45/100, HTLD exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.86 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 62.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC's short interest score of 31/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 62.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $649M (small-cap), HTLD carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
HTLD offers a modest dividend yield of 0.9%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.4%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2554 of 7,333 overall (65th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -5.5% trailing the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of -4.8% below the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While HTLD currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Short Int. (31) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 4147% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 146% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 20% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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