IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Relative to Consumer Discretionary Sector Median (N=442)
Metric
HLT
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
48.2x
+97%
EV/EBITDA
25.2x
+414%
Price / Book
-22.2x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-86.3%
$44.23Spot: $323.43
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Discretionary sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
-46.1%
Sector: 6.2%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
0.23%
Trailing Yield
$0.23
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
11%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
Sign up for free access to institutional-quality research tools.
Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 51.8/100, ranked #398 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 55/100, Momentum 59/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Do?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, owns, leases, manages, develops, and franchises hotels and resorts. It operates through two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brands. It operates hotels under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Canopy by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Signia by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, Curio Collection by Hilton, DoubleTree by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, and Hilton Grand Vacations. The company operates in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. As of February 16, 2022, the company had approximately 6,800 properties with 1 million rooms in 122 countries and territories. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically within the Restaurants, Hotels, Motels industry. The company is led by CEO Christopher J. Nassetta and employs approximately 159,000 people, headquartered in McLean, Virginia. With a market capitalization of $70.7B, HLT is one of the prominent companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.HLT ranks #398 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. ranks #22 of 442 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Consumer Discretionary peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
HLT Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) currently trades at $323.43. The stock gained $0.92 (0.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for HLT is $333.86, which means the stock is currently trading -3.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $196.04, putting the stock 65.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.3M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is HLT Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) carries a value factor score of 55/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 48.16x, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 24.47x — a premium of 97%. The price-to-sales ratio is 6.14x, compared to 0.27x for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. On an enterprise value basis, HLT trades at 25.19x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.91x for the sector.
Overall, HLT's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is -46.1%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 6.2%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 9.0% versus the sector average of 2.5%.
On a margin basis, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reports gross margins of 91.0%, compared to 36.9% for the sector. The operating margin is 22.8% (sector: 3.8%). Net profit margin stands at 12.7%, versus 2.1% for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. Revenue growth is running at 5.7% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.3% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
HLT Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of -253.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 89.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 0.66x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $12.35B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.06B.
HLT has a beta of 0.89, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is 83/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $11.82B and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.18. Net income for the quarter was $1.51B. Gross margin was 91.0%. Operating income came in at $2.71B.
In FY 2025, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $12.04B and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.18. Net income for the quarter was $1.46B. Revenue grew 7.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $2.69B.
In Q3 2025, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $3.12B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.79. Net income for the quarter was $421M. Revenue grew 8.8% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $777M.
In Q2 2025, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $3.14B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.85. Net income for the quarter was $442M. Revenue grew 6.3% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $778M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $2.95B to $11.82B. Investors analyzing HLT stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
HLT Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.2%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in HLT stock would generate approximately $$23.00 in annual dividend income. The net margin of 12.7% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
HLT Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) has a momentum factor score of 59/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 31/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 25/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
HLT vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing HLT against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full HLT vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
HLT Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy HLT? — Investment Thesis Summary
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. Low volatility (stability score 83/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.8/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on HLT stock.
We'll email you when stocks you follow change their composite rating.
Institutional Research Dossier
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT). While the company exhibits strong brand recognition and a robust franchise model, its current valuation appears stretched relative to its growth prospects and significant debt burden. The company's high P/E ratio compared to the sector average, coupled with a negative ROE, raises concerns about its ability to generate sufficient returns for investors at the current price.
The primary takeaway is that while Hilton benefits from a resilient business model and a demonstrated ability to generate revenue growth, the market has already priced in much of this potential. Investors should remain cautious, awaiting a more attractive entry point or evidence of accelerated earnings growth to justify the premium valuation. The high debt levels and negative ROE warrant close monitoring.
Business Strategy & Overview
Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates primarily through a management and franchise model, which is less capital-intensive than direct ownership of hotels. This strategy allows Hilton to expand its brand presence globally without incurring the significant costs associated with property ownership. The company generates revenue through management fees, franchise fees, and to a lesser extent, ownership of properties. The diverse brand portfolio, ranging from luxury (Waldorf Astoria) to budget-friendly (Hampton by Hilton), enables Hilton to cater to a wide range of travelers and capture different segments of the market.
The company's strategic focus is on expanding its franchise network, particularly in emerging markets where demand for branded hotels is growing. Hilton also invests in technology and innovation to enhance the guest experience and improve operational efficiency. The Hilton Honors loyalty program is a key component of its strategy, driving repeat business and fostering customer loyalty. The company's pipeline of new hotels under development provides a clear runway for future growth.
Hilton's industry context is characterized by intense competition from other major hotel chains such as Marriott International and Hyatt Hotels Corporation, as well as alternative lodging options like Airbnb. The industry is also cyclical, with demand heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and travel trends. Hilton's ability to navigate these challenges depends on its brand strength, operational efficiency, and ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences.
The shift towards asset-light models is a key trend in the hospitality industry, and Hilton has been at the forefront of this transition. By focusing on management and franchising, Hilton can generate higher returns on capital and reduce its exposure to real estate risks. This strategy also allows the company to allocate capital more efficiently to growth initiatives and shareholder returns. The company's recent financial performance, with consistent revenue and net income growth, suggests that its business strategy is effective.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
5.7%
Sector: 3.3%
+74% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Hilton possesses a Narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its strong brand recognition and extensive loyalty program. The Hilton brand is globally recognized and associated with quality and reliability, which provides a competitive advantage in attracting both franchisees and guests. The Hilton Honors loyalty program, with its large and engaged membership base, creates switching costs for frequent travelers who are incentivized to stay within the Hilton network to accumulate and redeem points.
However, the moat is not considered Wide due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the hotel industry. While establishing a global brand requires significant investment and time, independent hotels and smaller chains can still compete effectively, particularly in niche markets. Furthermore, the rise of alternative lodging options like Airbnb has increased competition and eroded some of the pricing power of traditional hotel chains.
The network effect of the Hilton Honors program is a positive factor, as a larger membership base makes the program more attractive to both guests and franchisees. However, this network effect is not as strong as in other industries, such as technology or social media, where the value of the network increases exponentially with each new user. In the hotel industry, the value of the network is more linear, as each additional member contributes incrementally to the overall value.
While Hilton benefits from intangible assets in the form of its brand and loyalty program, these advantages are not insurmountable. Competitors can invest in their own brands and loyalty programs to attract customers. Furthermore, the commoditized nature of the hotel industry, where guests often prioritize price and location over brand loyalty, limits Hilton's ability to command premium pricing. Therefore, while Hilton has a competitive advantage, it is not strong enough to warrant a Wide moat rating.
Financial Health & Profitability
Hilton's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with revenue increasing from $10.23 billion in FY2023 to $12.04 billion in FY2025. Net income has also shown improvement, reaching $1.46 billion in FY2025. The gross margin of 91.0% and operating margin of 22.8% are significantly higher than the sector averages, indicating strong profitability. However, the negative ROE of -46.1% is a major concern, suggesting inefficient use of equity. This is likely due to the company's significant debt burden and negative equity.
The company's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with total debt of $12.35 billion and total cash of $1.06 billion. The current ratio of 0.66 indicates potential liquidity issues. The debt-to-equity ratio of -253.00 is significantly worse than the sector average of 91.00, highlighting the company's reliance on debt financing. While the company has been generating positive free cash flow, the high debt levels pose a risk, particularly in a rising interest rate environment.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a consistent trend of revenue and net income growth. Operating margins have remained relatively stable, indicating effective cost management. However, the absence of free cash flow data for several quarters makes it difficult to assess the company's cash flow generation capabilities fully. The significant fluctuations in gross margin in Q2 2024 warrant further investigation.
Compared to the sector, Hilton's revenue growth and margins are strong, but its profitability, as measured by ROE, is significantly weaker. The high debt levels and negative equity are major concerns that need to be addressed. While the company's financial performance has been improving, the balance sheet remains a significant risk factor. The company's ability to manage its debt and improve its ROE will be crucial for its long-term financial health.
Valuation Assessment
Hilton's valuation appears stretched based on several key metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 47.3x is significantly higher than the sector average of 28.0x, suggesting that the market has high expectations for future earnings growth. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.8x is slightly above the sector average of 5.3x, indicating that the company is trading at a premium to its peers. Given the company's high debt levels and negative ROE, this premium valuation is difficult to justify.
The company's free cash flow yield cannot be accurately assessed due to missing FCF data for several quarters. However, based on the available data, the FCF yield appears to be relatively low, suggesting that the stock is not particularly attractive from a cash flow perspective. The company's high debt levels also reduce the attractiveness of the stock, as a significant portion of its cash flow is used to service its debt.
Relative to its historical valuation, Hilton's current P/E ratio is at the higher end of its historical range, suggesting that the stock is currently overvalued. The company's growth prospects are likely priced into the current valuation, leaving limited upside potential. Investors should be cautious about paying a premium for the stock, given the risks associated with its high debt levels and negative ROE.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be necessary to determine the intrinsic value of the stock accurately. However, based on the available data, it is likely that the stock is currently trading above its intrinsic value. The company's high debt levels and negative ROE would need to be factored into the DCF analysis, which would likely result in a lower valuation. Therefore, we believe that Hilton is currently overvalued and that investors should await a more attractive entry point.
Risk & Uncertainty
Hilton faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the primary risks is its high debt levels. The company's significant debt burden increases its vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. A slowdown in the global economy could reduce travel demand and negatively impact Hilton's revenue, making it more difficult to service its debt. The company's negative ROE also poses a risk, as it indicates inefficient use of equity and could deter investors.
Competition from other hotel chains and alternative lodging options like Airbnb is another significant risk. The hotel industry is highly competitive, and Hilton faces intense competition from Marriott, Hyatt, and other major players. The rise of Airbnb has further intensified competition and eroded some of Hilton's pricing power. The company's ability to maintain its market share and profitability depends on its ability to differentiate itself from its competitors and adapt to changing consumer preferences.
Regulatory risks also pose a threat to Hilton's business. The hotel industry is subject to various regulations, including health and safety standards, labor laws, and environmental regulations. Changes in these regulations could increase Hilton's operating costs and negatively impact its profitability. Furthermore, the company's international operations expose it to political and economic risks, such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical instability.
A potential risk lies in the concentration of its revenue streams. While Hilton operates a diverse portfolio of brands, a significant portion of its revenue is derived from its management and franchise fees. Any disruption to its franchise network, such as franchisee bankruptcies or terminations, could negatively impact its revenue. The company's reliance on its Hilton Honors loyalty program also poses a risk, as any failure to maintain the program's attractiveness could lead to a decline in customer loyalty and revenue.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWHilton's asset-light business model allows for high returns on capital and rapid expansion through franchising, particularly in high-growth emerging markets.
BULL VIEWThe Hilton Honors loyalty program creates a strong competitive advantage, driving repeat business and brand loyalty, leading to consistent revenue growth.
BULL VIEWHilton's diverse brand portfolio caters to a wide range of travelers, providing resilience across different economic cycles and travel trends.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWHilton's high debt levels and negative ROE create significant financial risk, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and rising interest rates.
BEAR VIEWThe company's premium valuation, with a high P/E ratio, is unsustainable given its modest growth prospects and intense competition from alternative lodging options.
BEAR VIEWThe commoditized nature of the hotel industry limits Hilton's pricing power, making it difficult to maintain profitability in the face of increasing competition and economic uncertainty.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score HLT and 4,400+ other equities.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. exhibits a 367% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
9.0%
Sector: 2.5%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
91.0%
Sector: 36.9%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
22.8%
Sector: 3.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
12.7%
Sector: 2.1%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $23 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
