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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2380
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$58M
Ross M. Dove
Heritage Global, Inc. provides market making, acquisitions, dispositions, valuations, and secured lending services. Heritage Global Inc. acts as an adviser, as well as a principal, acquiring, or brokering manufacturing facilities; surplus industrial machinery and equipment; industrial inventories; accounts receivable portfolios.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = HGBL ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | 21.3% | 18.6% | 64.5% | 35.7% | 39.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $644M | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | 15.4% | 12.6% | 38.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | -39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $439M | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 28.1% | 16.8% | 48.1% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 78.6% | 0.0% | 37.0x | $220M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | 12.4% | 2.9% | 100.0% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 264.0x | $19.4B | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.6% | 7.8% | 43.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $857M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 18.0% | 4.6% | 97.3% | 52.2% | 32.7% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 271.0x | $8.0B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | 9.4% | 4.9% | 55.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 7.0x | $78.0B | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | 22.1% | 15.6% | 62.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 9.0x | $56.6B | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 21.4% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 27.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$HGBL Heritage Global Inc. | 48 | 47 | 63 | 38 | 10.4x | 7.2x | 6.6% | 5.1% | -5.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | -5.5% | 0.0% | 6.0x | $58M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.3% | 1.9% | 59.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 47.7/100. It ranks #2380 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Ross M. Dove
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
60
47
31
76
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for HGBL
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for HGBL.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 47 | 49 | -2NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 38 | 35 | +3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 63 | 71 | -8DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 36 | -5NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 76 | 82 | -6DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 73 | 86 | -13DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 6.6% (sector 5.3%)
GM -6% vs sector 60%, OM 13% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth -6%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -10.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Heritage Global Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 47.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2380 out of 7,333 stocks. HGBL's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 47/100, HGBL shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 6.6% (sector avg: 5.3%), gross margins of -5.6% (sector avg: 59.6%), net margins of 8.7% (sector avg: 2.3%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
HGBL's value score of 63/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 10.40x, an EV/EBITDA of 7.17x, a P/B ratio of 0.68x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
Heritage Global Inc.'s investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -5.5% vs. a sector average of 7.8% and a return on assets of 5.1% (sector: 1.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
HGBL is currently showing below-average momentum at 38/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -5.5% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.61 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
HGBL shows good financial stability with a score of 76/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.61 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
HGBL carries a short interest score of 73/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 6.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $58M market cap (micro-cap), Heritage Global Inc. offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
Heritage Global Inc. is a micro-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2380 of 7,333 overall (68th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 6.6% exceeding the 5.3% sector median and operating margins of 12.9% above the 3.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While HGBL currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Investment (31) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 39% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 24% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 109% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.7/100 at a current price of $1.29. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (76th percentile) and value (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (31th percentile) and momentum (38th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
Heritage Global Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.7/100 places it at rank #2380 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $58M in market capitalization, Heritage Global Inc. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -6% combined with momentum at the 38th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of -6% (-65.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+9.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 8.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $1.29, Heritage Global Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 63/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 10.4x (a 56% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 7.2x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.9x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
A conservative balance sheet (6% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Reduce rating (composite 47.7/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -6% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Elevated short interest (73th percentile) indicates that sophisticated market participants are betting against the stock.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Heritage Global Inc.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.61, conservative leverage (6% D/E), and a stability factor in the 76th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.61 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 76th percentile and quality factor at the 47th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (6% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (76th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate Heritage Global Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 6.6%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 6%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Heritage Global Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, Heritage Global Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.7/100 (rank #2380 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 51/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Heritage Global Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign Heritage Global Inc. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 31/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 11.2/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (11.2/20) and financial resilience (10.8/20). Rev growth -6%, 10yr history. Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -10.8x. These pillars form the core of Heritage Global Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and economic value creation (2.7/20). Capital turnover N/A. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect Heritage Global Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include operating margins of 13% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-6%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from -6% gross to 13% operating to 8.7% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 47th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of -6%, operating margins of 13%, net margins of 8.7%. Return metrics include ROE of 6.6% and ROA of 5.1%. Relative to the Services sector, gross margins are 65.2 percentage points below the sector median of 60%, and ROE of 6.6% compares to a sector median of 5.3%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 6%, revenue growth of -6%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting Heritage Global Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
SAN DIEGO, February 19, 2026--Heritage Global Partners ("HGP"), a subsidiary of Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ: HGBL) and a worldwide leader in asset advisory and auction services, in conjunction with Prestige Auctions, today announced it will conduct an online auction of assets from National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) Dayton facility – formerly known as Dayton Chemineer. The auction will take place Thursday, March 12, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET, with assets located in Dayton, Ohio.
SAN DIEGO, February 12, 2026--Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ: HGBL) ("Heritage Global," "HG" or "the Company"), an asset services company specializing in financial and industrial asset transactions, today announced that the Company will release its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results after the market closes on Thursday, March 12, 2026.
Heritage Global Inc. ( NASDAQ:HGBL ) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But...
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Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081