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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is a leading producer and exporter of high-quality metallurgical (met) coal for the global steel industry, with operations primarily in Alabama.
Investment Thesis
HCC is the highest-quality vehicle for playing the global steel cycle. They produce 'Blue Creek' coal, which is prized by global steelmakers for its high quality and low impurities. Unlike 'thermal' coal used for power, met coal is an essential industrial raw material with no viable substitute at scale. HCC operates with some of the lowest costs in the industry and maintains a pristine, net-cash balance sheet. The company is currently building its 'Blue Creek' project, a transformational expansion that will drive massive growth in its met-coal production capacity by 2027. HCC is a high-margin, shareholder-friendly commodity leader.
Key Growth Drivers
Met-Coal Pricing Power
As one of the few producers of high-vol met coal, HCC captures premium global pricing and enjoys high-margin relationships with the world's largest steelmakers.
Blue Creek Growth Catalyst
The ongoing development of the Blue Creek mine is a major growth engine that will structurally increase the company's long-term earnings power.
Fortress Balance Sheet
Management's commitment to zero net debt provides ultimate safety and the ability to fund massive growth projects through cash flow alone.
Valuation & Financial Modeling
HCC trades at a reasonable multiple relative to its high-quality reserves and growth potential. We believe the market is under-valuing the scarcity of high-grade metallurgical coal and HCC's superior execution. The stock offers defensive value and cyclical growth.
Risk Factors & Bear Case
A sudden and severe global industrial recession that crashes steel demand would hit met-coal prices. Additionally, any operational disruptions at their concentrated Alabama mine sites would impact near-term production.
Conclusion
Warrior Met Coal is a world-class industrial material play. It offers elite quality, high margins, and a clear path to production growth. Rated 'Strong Buy'.
Upcoming Catalysts
No upcoming catalysts identified.
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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
3.5%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
0.50%
Trailing Yield
$0.50
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
32%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 48.8/100, ranked #360 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 42/100, Momentum 66/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. Do?
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama. WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Coal industry. The company is led by CEO Walter J. Scheller and employs approximately 850 people. With a market capitalization of $4.9B, HCC is one of the notable companies in the Energy sector.
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 48.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.HCC ranks #360 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. ranks #43 of 128 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
HCC Stock Price and 52-Week Range
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) currently trades at $88.35. The stock gained $2.65 (3.1%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for HCC is $105.34, which means the stock is currently trading -16.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $38.00, putting the stock 132.5% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 697K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is HCC Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) carries a value factor score of 42/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 64.79x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a premium of 230%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.29x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.92x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, HCC trades at 100.94x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Overall, HCC's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 3.5%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 2.7% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reports gross margins of 24.6%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 3.8% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 5.8%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Revenue growth is running at -17.1% on a trailing basis, compared to -1.2% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
HCC Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 3.19x, indicating strong short-term liquidity. Total debt on the balance sheet is $154M. Cash and equivalents stand at $336M.
HCC has a beta of 0.67, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. is 54/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reported revenue of $1.25B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.08. Net income for the quarter was $76M. Gross margin was 24.6%. Operating income came in at $50M.
In FY 2025, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reported revenue of $1.31B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.08. Net income for the quarter was $57M. Gross margin was 25.0%. Revenue grew -14.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $46M.
In Q3 2025, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reported revenue of $329M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70. Net income for the quarter was $37M. Gross margin was 27.1%. Revenue grew 0.3% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $21M.
In Q2 2025, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reported revenue of $298M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11. Net income for the quarter was $6M. Gross margin was 23.9%. Revenue grew -25.0% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $8M.
Over the past 8 quarters, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $397M to $1.25B. Investors analyzing HCC stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
HCC Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.5%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in HCC stock would generate approximately $$50.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Energy sector average dividend yield of 1.9%, meaning HCC yields less than the typical sector peer. The net margin of 5.8% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
HCC Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) has a momentum factor score of 66/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 37/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 17/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
HCC vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing HCC against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full HCC vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
HCC Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy HCC? — Investment Thesis Summary
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. Price momentum is positive at 66/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers.
In summary, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 48.8/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on HCC stock.
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Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-17.1%
Sector: -1.2%
+1364% VS SCTR
Gross Margin
Core pricing power
24.6%
Sector: 52.7%
-53% VS SCTR
Operating Margin
Operating efficiency
3.8%
Sector: 10.7%
-65% VS SCTR
Net Margin
Bottom-line conversion
5.8%
Sector: 6.4%
-10% VS SCTR
Return on Equity
Equity capital efficiency
3.5%
Sector: 6.7%
-47% VS SCTR
Return on Assets
Asset base utilization
2.7%
Sector: 3.7%
-26% VS SCTR
Debt/Equity
Financial leverage load
7.0%
Sector: 55.0%
+87% VS SCTR
Dividend Yield
Direct cash return
0.5%
Sector: 1.9%
-74% VS SCTR
+40%
Price / Sales
3.9x
+734%
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. exhibits a 947% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
2.7%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
24.6%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
3.8%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
5.8%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield1.89%
Yield Delta-74%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $50 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.