Equity Research Analysis: GRAY TELEVISION INC (GTN)
|Blank Capital Research Unit|Spot: $4.67
Price$4.67
Composite Score41.9/100
RatingREDUCE (2★)
Rank#3298 OF 7,333
Market Cap$581M
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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3298
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Communication
$581M
Hilton H. Howell
Gray Television, Inc. owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services. The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GTN GRAY TELEVISION INC | 42 | 29 | 53 | 34 | 23.7x | 7.9x | 1.0% | 0.2% | 25.0% | 15.6% | 0.1% | -9.3% | 5.6% | 259.0x | $581M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
GRAY TELEVISION INC (GTN) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 41.9/100. It ranks #3298 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for GTN.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 29 | 18 | +11ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 34 | 26 | +8ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 53 | 60 | -7DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 35 | 49 | -14DRAG |
| STABILITY | 26 | 23 | +3NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 42 | 40 | +2NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.5% vs WACC 2.4% (spread -1.0%)
GM 25% vs sector 53%, OM 16% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 0.14x
Rev growth -9%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 0.8x, Net debt/EBITDA 34.3x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate GRAY TELEVISION INC (GTN) as a Reduce with a composite score of 41.9/100 at a current price of $4.67. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
GRAY TELEVISION INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 41.9/100 places it at rank #3298 in our full universe.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 259% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Weak momentum suggests persistent institutional selling pressure.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
GRAY TELEVISION INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
GRAY TELEVISION INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 41.9/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3298 out of 7,333 stocks. GTN's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
GTN's quality score of 29/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 1.0% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 25.0% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of 0.1% (sector avg: 7.7%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
GTN's value score of 53/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 23.67x, an EV/EBITDA of 7.90x, a P/B ratio of 0.23x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
GRAY TELEVISION INC's investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -9.3% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of 0.2% (sector: 3.2%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
GTN is currently showing below-average momentum at 34/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -9.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.29 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
GTN's stability score of 26/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.29 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 259.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 42/100 for GTN suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.29), elevated leverage (D/E: 259.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $581M market cap (small-cap), GRAY TELEVISION INC may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
GRAY TELEVISION INC offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.6%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.4%. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
GRAY TELEVISION INC is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3298 of 7,333 overall (55th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 1.0% trailing the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of 15.6% above the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While GTN currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (26) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 29% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 92% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 52% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Local television broadcasting and media company Gray Television (NYSE:GTN) will be announcing earnings results this Thursday morning. Here’s what you need to know.