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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2858
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Petroleum And Natural Gas
$154M
Gary S. Guidry
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved undeveloped reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Colombia.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | 15.8% | 6.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $38.7B | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | 13.1% | 6.5% | 58.3% | 18.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 4.9% | 29.0x | $46.0B | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | 10.7% | 6.1% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 11.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.0x | $104M | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | 19.6% | 15.7% | 74.8% | 47.5% | 26.2% | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | 15.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 21.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | 9.4% | 6.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.0x | $38.9B | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | 20.3% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 23.1% | -1.3% | 11.2% | 26.0x | $93.8B | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | 29.9% | 17.1% | 33.7% | 57.8% | 51.9% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 34.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | 11.1% | 4.8% | 52.8% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 38.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | 6.6% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $876M | VS | |
$GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. | 45 | 41 | 34 | 50 | - | 0.6x | -13.9% | -3.1% | 100.0% | -5.7% | -8.1% | -9.9% | 0.0% | 206.0x | $154M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.0% | 3.9% | 43.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (GTE) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 44.7/100. It ranks #2858 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Gary S. Guidry
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
340
41
31
34
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for GTE
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for GTE.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 41 | 37 | +4NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 50 | 51 | -1NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 34 | 32 | +2NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 28 | +3NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 34 | 27 | +7ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 37 | 28 | +9ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -3.6% vs WACC 4.4% (spread -8.0%)
GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -6% vs sector 12%
Capital turnover 0.21x
Rev growth -10%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -1.3x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 44.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2858 out of 7,333 stocks. GTE's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
GTE's quality score of 41/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -13.9% (sector avg: 4.0%), gross margins of 100.0% (sector avg: 43.2%), net margins of -8.1% (sector avg: 6.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 34/100, GTE appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 0.61x, a P/B ratio of 0.65x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -9.9% vs. a sector average of 2.6% and a return on assets of -3.1% (sector: 3.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
GTE demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 50/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -9.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.02 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
GTE's stability score of 34/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.02 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 206.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s short interest score of 37/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 206.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $154M (micro-cap), GTE carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. is a micro-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2858 of 7,333 overall (61st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -13.9% trailing the 4.0% sector median and operating margins of -5.7% below the 12.2% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Mining peers.
While GTE currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MINING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Investment (31) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 88% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 451% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 132% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (GTE) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.7/100 at a current price of $6.20. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (50th percentile) and quality (41th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (31th percentile) and value (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.7/100 places it at rank #2858 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $154M in market capitalization, GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. is a small-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -10% combined with momentum at the 50th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+56.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -6% (-17.9pp vs sector) and net margins of -8.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -8%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $6.20, GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 34/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 0.6x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.4x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Gross margins of 100% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
The Reduce rating (composite 44.7/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (206% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Revenue decline of -10% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Thin net margins of -8.1% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (206% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -8.1%), below-average price stability (34th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (206% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -8.1%); below-average price stability (34th percentile); the combination of leverage (206% D/E) and thin margins (-8.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 34th percentile and quality factor at the 41th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-13.9%), elevated leverage (206% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -3.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.7/100 (rank #2858 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 38/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 26/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -8.0% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 13.5/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (13.5/20) and growth durability (9.8/20). GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -6% vs sector 12%. Rev growth -10%, 10yr history. These pillars form the core of GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and financial resilience (0.8/20). Capital turnover 0.21x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 100% providing a solid profitability foundation, declining revenues (-10%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 100% gross to -6% operating to -8.1% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 41th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 100%, operating margins of -6%, net margins of -8.1%. Return metrics include ROE of -13.9% and ROA of -3.1%. Relative to the Mining sector, gross margins are 56.8 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -13.9% compares to a sector median of 4.0%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 206%, which may limit financial flexibility, revenue growth of -10%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
SOCAR and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. have signed an Exploration, Development and Production Sharing Agreement (EDPSA) for an onshore prospective area in Azerbaijan's Guba-Khazaryan region. Gran Tierra Energy Inc. will operate with a 65% working interest, undertaking exploration work that includes gravity data acquisition, 3D seismic surveys, and drilling. The agreement awaits ratification by the Parliament of Azerbaijan.
SOCAR and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. have signed an Exploration, Development and Production Sharing Agreement (EDPSA) for an onshore prospective area in Azerbaijan's Guba–Khazaryani region. Gran Tierra Energy Inc. will hold a 65% working interest and operate the project, which includes exploration work like airborne gravity data acquisition, 3D seismic surveys, and drilling exploration wells to uncover hydrocarbon potential. The agreement awaits ratification by the Parliament of Azerbaijan to take effect.
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has signed an Exploration, Development, and Production Sharing Agreement with Gran Tierra Energy Inc. for an onshore prospective area in Azerbaijan's Guba-Caspian region. Under the agreement, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. will be the project operator with a 65% stake, focusing on exploration through gravimetric data acquisition, 3D seismic assessments, and exploratory drilling. The agreement's entry into force is contingent upon ratification by the Azerbaijani Parliament.
Gran Tierra Energy has divested its remaining stake in the Simonette asset for C$62.5 million, aiming to reduce debt and improve its financial standing. Concurrently, the company entered an agreement with Azerbaijan's state oil company, SOCAR, securing a 65% working interest in a new exploration area of approximately 400,000 acres. This strategic move includes plans for an airborne gravity study in 2026, followed by seismic acquisition and drilling activities in 2027 to drive business development in the region.
Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR has signed a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) with Gran Tierra Energy Inc. for an onshore area in the Guba-Caspian region. Gran Tierra will operate the project with a 65% interest, undertaking geological exploration including seismic surveys and exploratory drilling. The agreement awaits ratification by Azerbaijan's parliament to become effective.