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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1394
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$18.2B
Patrick Dovigi
GFL Environmental Inc. offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vaughan, Canada.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = GFL ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$GFL GFL Environmental Inc. | 54 | 40 | 55 | 60 | - | 6.4x | -42.3% | -13.9% | 19.4% | 0.3% | -9.3% | -3.8% | 0.1% | 150.0x | $18.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.0/100. It ranks #1394 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Conservative, efficient capex — capital discipline signals management quality
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for GFL.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 40 | 33 | +7ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 60 | 63 | -3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 55 | 61 | -6DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 71 | 100 | -29DRAG |
| STABILITY | 91 | 97 | -6DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 57 | 71 | -14DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 0.2% vs WACC 8.2% (spread -8.1%)
GM 19% vs sector 65%, OM 0% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover 0.76x
Rev growth -4%, 5yr history
Interest coverage 0.0x, Net debt/EBITDA 8.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) as a Hold with a composite score of 54.0/100 at a current price of $42.26. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
GFL Environmental Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 54.0/100 places it at rank #1394 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 150% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
GFL Environmental Inc. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns GFL Environmental Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 54.0/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1394 of 7,333 stocks, GFL presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
GFL's quality score of 40/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -42.3% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 19.4% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of -9.3% (sector avg: 2.8%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
GFL's value score of 55/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 6.36x, a P/B ratio of 3.15x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
GFL shows a solid investment score of 71/100, reflecting measured but productive capital allocation. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -3.8% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of -13.9% (sector: 2.4%). This suggests the company is investing at an appropriate level to sustain growth without overextending its balance sheet.
GFL demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 60/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -3.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.58 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
GFL Environmental Inc. earns an excellent stability score of 91/100, reflecting low price volatility and a conservatively managed balance sheet. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.58 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 150.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Stocks with this level of stability tend to act as portfolio anchors, providing downside protection during market corrections while still participating in broad market advances.
The short interest score of 57/100 for GFL suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 150.00x). With a $18.2B market cap (large-cap), GFL Environmental Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
GFL offers a modest dividend yield of 0.1%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
GFL Environmental Inc. is a large-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1394 of 7,333 overall (81st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -42.3% trailing the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of 0.3% below the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While GFL currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Stability (91) vs Quality (40) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 46% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 837% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 70% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Seaport Research initiated coverage on several major waste management companies, highlighting their resilient business models, dependable recurring revenue, and significant barriers to entry. The analyst believes these companies have historically outperformed the S&P 500 during market corrections.
GFL Environmental is relocating its corporate headquarters to Miami Beach, opening the door to potential inclusion in U.S. indices such as the Russell 2000. The company plans to deploy about CA$2b in 2026 toward mergers and acquisitions and sustainability focused projects, including EPR and renewable natural gas. GFL Environmental (TSX:GFL) is making a high profile shift with its move to Miami Beach and a fresh push to grow its U.S. footprint. The stock last closed at CA$58.99, with a 3...
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GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) executives highlighted margin expansion, pricing strength and a more flexible balance sheet as they reviewed fourth-quarter 2025 results and provided 2026 guidance on the company’s earnings call. Founder and CEO Patrick Dovigi said 2025 results reflected the strategy th