Is FWRG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 41.7/100. It is ranked #3,209 out of 4,446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 64/100, Momentum 21/100. The timing signal is "Bearish". This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.

What is the stock rating for FWRG?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a "Reduce" rating and 2-star score. The composite score of 41.7 ranks it #3,209 among 4,446 U.S. stocks. Ratings are updated weekly using academically-proven factor models.

What sector is FWRG in?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants, Hotels, Motels industry) with a market cap of $669 million. It is classified as a small-cap stock.

Does FWRG pay a dividend?

FWRG does not currently pay a regular dividend. The company may be reinvesting profits for growth.

What is FWRG's P/E ratio?

FWRG has a trailing P/E ratio of 104.55x. The Consumer Discretionary sector average is 24.5x. This above-average P/E reflects growth expectations or premium valuation.

How profitable is FWRG?

FWRG's quality factor score is 50/100. Gross margin: 99.9%. ROE: 1.0% vs sector average 6.2%. High margins suggest pricing power and competitive moats.

How is FWRG valued compared to peers?

FWRG's value factor score is 64/100 (higher = cheaper). Key multiples: P/E 104.5x, EV/EBITDA 7.1x. The stock appears attractively valued versus peers.

What is FWRG's debt level?

FWRG's debt-to-equity ratio is 178%. Sector average: 89%. Elevated leverage increases credit risk.

FWRG has a beta of 1.18, meaning it tracks the market. Stability score: 41/100.

Does FWRG have high short interest?

FWRG's short interest factor score is 54/100 (higher = less short selling). Moderate short interest.

FWRG Stock Analysis: Top Small-Cap Reduce (Score 41.7/100) | Blank Capital Research

Data Series	1D	5D	1M	YTD	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y
FWRG	-1.46%	+6.69%	-8.31%	-23.87%	-34.21%	-	-	-
Industry Proxy XLY	+0.13%	+4.38%	-1.35%	-5.46%	-39.92%	-	-	-
U.S. Market SPY	-0.07%	+3.60%	+0.34%	-0.36%	+29.52%	-	-	-
Alpha vs Market	-1.39%	+3.09%	-8.64%	-23.51%	-63.74%	-	-	-
Alpha vs Sector	-1.59%	+2.31%	-6.95%	-18.41%	+5.71%	-	-	-

Metric	FWRG	Benchmark
P/E Ratio	104.5x	+327%
EV/EBITDA	7.1x	+44%
Price / Book	1.1x

Stock Entity	Score▼	Quality	Value	Momentum	P/E Ratio	ROE	Gross Margin	Net Margin	Rev Growth	D/E Ratio	Market Cap	Compare
CASY CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC	57	50	68	67	43.1x	16.9%	24.0%	3.8%	0.3%	123.0x	$27.2B	VS
TGT TARGET CORP	53	50	70	56	16.7x	20.7%	28.4%	3.4%	-0.7%	89.0x	$54.5B	VS
APEI AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION INC	53	49	58	72	79.0x	4.6%	52.8%	2.1%	6.8%	32.0x	$1.1B	VS
LINC LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP	52	50	48	75	113.9x	5.6%	59.2%	2.3%	37.4%	147.0x	$1.3B	VS
FIVE FIVE BELOW, INC	52	50	56	73	106.3x	5.4%	32.5%	3.1%	26.5%	125.0x	$13.0B	VS
IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC	51	50	51	62	17.7x	6.2%	23.9%	1.9%	0.4%	57.0x	$1.7B	VS
PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION Corp	51	50	70	57	14.1x	16.7%	100.0%	20.4%	27.1%	28.0x	$2.4B	VS
MCRI MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC	51	50	66	47	16.6x	19.7%	24.5%	19.4%	11.5%	33.0x	$1.7B	VS
FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc.	49	50	29	66	35.4x	10.8%	50.2%	8.0%	26.6%	98.0x	$8.4B	VS
ESCA ESCALADE INC	48	50	65	51	15.6x	9.0%	26.1%	6.2%	8.4%	11.0x	$249M	VS
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.	42	50	64	21	104.6x	1.0%	99.9%	0.5%	22.2%	178.0x	$669M

Key Ratio	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Gross Margin %	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.8%
Operating Margin %	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%
EBITDA Margin %	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0%
Net Margin %	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%	-0.1%
FCF Margin %	-9.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-13.2%
ROE %	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%	-0.2%
ROA %	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%	-0.0%
ROIC %	2.3%	3.5%	5.2%	5.8%	2.6%	3.5%	-6.5%

Key Ratio

TTM

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Gross Margin %

1.0%

0.8%

Operating Margin %

0.0%

-0.1%

EBITDA Margin %

0.1%

-0.0%

Net Margin %

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

FCF Margin %

-9.5%

-13.2%

ROE %

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.2%

ROA %

0.0%

-0.0%

ROIC %

2.3%

3.5%

5.2%

5.8%

2.6%

3.5%

-6.5%

Line Item	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.0B	$892M	$730M	$601M	$342M
	—	$2M	$1M	$1M	$700K	$500K	—
	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.0B	$891M	$729M	$601M	$265M
Gross Margin	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	77.5%
	—	$75M	$58M	$41M	$34M	$32M	$32M
Total Operating Expenses	—	$1.2B	$976M	$849M	$713M	$578M	—
	$25M	$28M	$39M	$41M	$17M	$22M	-$47M
EBIT	$25M	$28M	$39M	$41M	$17M	$22M	-$47M
EBITDA	$94M	$103M	$97M	$82M	$51M	$55M	-$15M
Operating Margin	2.1%	2.3%	3.8%	4.6%	2.3%	3.7%	-13.8%
EBITDA Margin	8.1%	8.4%	9.5%	9.3%	7.0%	9.1%	-4.3%
	—	—	—	$8M	$5M	$20M	$23M
	—	$12M	$28M	$36M	$13M	$370K	—
Income Tax Expense	—	-$7M	$9M	$11M	$6M	$2M	-$20M
	$6M	$19M	$19M	$25M	$7M	-$2M	-$50M
Net Margin	0.5%	1.6%	1.9%	2.9%	0.9%	-0.4%	-14.5%
	$0.32	$0.32	$0.31	$0.43	$0.12	$-0.04	$-1.10
Diluted EPS	$0.32	$0.31	$0.30	$0.41	$0.11	$-0.04	$-1.10
Weighted Avg Basic	—	61M	60M	60M	59M	48M	—
Weighted Avg Diluted	—	63M	62M	61M	60M	48M	—

Line Item

TTM

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

$1.2B

$1.0B

$892M

$730M

$601M

$342M

—

$2M

$1M

$700K

$500K

—

$1.2B

$1.0B

$891M

$729M

$601M

$265M

Gross Margin

99.9%

77.5%

—

$75M

$58M

$41M

$34M

$32M

Total Operating Expenses

—

$1.2B

$976M

$849M

$713M

$578M

—

$25M

$28M

$39M

$41M

$17M

$22M

-$47M

EBIT

$25M

$28M

$39M

$41M

$17M

$22M

-$47M

EBITDA

$94M

$103M

$97M

$82M

$51M

$55M

-$15M

Operating Margin

2.1%

2.3%

3.8%

4.6%

2.3%

3.7%

-13.8%

EBITDA Margin

8.1%

8.4%

9.5%

9.3%

7.0%

9.1%

-4.3%

—

$8M

$5M

$20M

$23M

—

$12M

$28M

$36M

$13M

$370K

—

Income Tax Expense

—

-$7M

$9M

$11M

$6M

$2M

-$20M

$6M

$19M

$25M

$7M

-$2M

-$50M

Net Margin

0.5%

1.6%

1.9%

2.9%

0.9%

-0.4%

-14.5%

$0.32

$0.31

$0.43

$0.12

$-0.04

$-1.10

Diluted EPS

$0.32

$0.31

$0.30

$0.41

$0.11

$-0.04

$-1.10

Weighted Avg Basic

—

61M

60M

59M

48M

—

Weighted Avg Diluted

—

63M

62M

61M

60M

48M

—

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast

Last updated: April 2026

Company Overview — What Does First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Do?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is classified as a small-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically within the Restaurants, Hotels, Motels industry. The company is led by CEO Christopher A. Tomasso and employs approximately 10,000 people. With a market capitalization of $669M, FWRG is one of the notable companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Rating — Reduce (April 2026)

As of April 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 41.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.FWRG ranks #3,209 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ranks #336 of 442 stocks, placing it in the lower half of its Consumer Discretionary peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).

FWRG Stock Price and 52-Week Range

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) currently trades at $11.48. The stock lost $0.17 (1.5%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for FWRG is $20.55, which means the stock is currently trading -44.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $11.44, putting the stock 0.3% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 648K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.

Is FWRG Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) carries a value factor score of 64/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 104.55x, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 24.47x — a premium of 327%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.07x, versus the sector average of 1.99x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.58x, compared to 0.27x for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. On an enterprise value basis, FWRG trades at 7.07x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.91x for the sector.

Overall, FWRG's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 1.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 6.2%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 0.4% versus the sector average of 2.5%.

On a margin basis, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reports gross margins of 99.9%, compared to 36.9% for the sector. The operating margin is 2.1% (sector: 3.8%). Net profit margin stands at 0.5%, versus 2.1% for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. Revenue growth is running at 22.2% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.3% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.

FWRG Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 178.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 89.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.29x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $264M. Cash and equivalents stand at $21M.

FWRG has a beta of 1.18, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is 41/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend

In TTM 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.16B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.32. Net income for the quarter was $6M. Gross margin was 99.9%. Operating income came in at $25M.

In FY 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.22B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.32. Net income for the quarter was $19M. Gross margin was 99.9%. Revenue grew 20.3% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $28M.

In Q3 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported revenue of $316M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.05. Net income for the quarter was $3M. Revenue grew 25.6% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $10M.

In Q2 2025, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported revenue of $308M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03. Net income for the quarter was $2M. Revenue grew 19.1% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $7M.

Over the past 8 quarters, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $259M to $1.16B. Investors analyzing FWRG stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.

FWRG Dividend Yield and Income Analysis

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Restaurants, Hotels, Motels industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Consumer Discretionary dividend stocks may want to explore other Consumer Discretionary stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.

FWRG Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a momentum factor score of 21/100, signaling weak relative price performance. Stocks with low momentum scores have historically tended to continue underperforming in the near term. The investment factor score is 25/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 54/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.

FWRG vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) ranks #336 out of 442 stocks based on the Blank Capital composite score. This places FWRG in the lower half of all Consumer Discretionary stocks in our coverage universe. Key competitors and sector peers include MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC (MCRI) with a score of 50.5/100, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) with a score of 57.3/100, INGLES MARKETS INC (IMKTA) with a score of 51.0/100, FIVE BELOW, INC (FIVE) with a score of 51.6/100, and TARGET CORP (TGT) with a score of 52.6/100.

Comparing FWRG against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full FWRG vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.

FWRG Next Earnings Date

No upcoming earnings date has been announced for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.

Should You Buy FWRG? — Investment Thesis Summary

The quantitative profile for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. suggests caution. The value score of 64/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Momentum is weak at 21/100, a headwind for near-term performance.

In summary, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) earns a Reduce rating with a composite score of 41.7/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on FWRG stock.

Related Resources for FWRG Investors

Explore more research and tools: FWRG vs S&P 500 comparison, top Consumer Discretionary stocks, stock screener, our methodology, quality factor explained, value factor explained, momentum factor explained. Compare FWRG head-to-head with peers: FWRG vs MCRI, FWRG vs CASY, FWRG vs IMKTA.

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Strong growth and pay plans at First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) 2026 meeting

Riverbridge Partners LLC Reduces Position in First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. $FWRG

First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Coverage Initiated at DA Davidson

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) Given Consensus Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts

First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) ends COO role and shifts operations to CEO

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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast

Company Overview — What Does First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Do?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Rating — Reduce (April 2026)

FWRG Stock Price and 52-Week Range

Is FWRG Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score

FWRG Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend

FWRG Dividend Yield and Income Analysis

FWRG Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile

FWRG vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison

FWRG Next Earnings Date

Should You Buy FWRG? — Investment Thesis Summary

Related Resources for FWRG Investors

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Intelligence Feed

Strong growth and pay plans at First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) 2026 meeting

Riverbridge Partners LLC Reduces Position in First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. $FWRG

First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Coverage Initiated at DA Davidson

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) Given Consensus Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts

First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) ends COO role and shifts operations to CEO