EZPW

We rate EZCORP INC (EZPW) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.1/100 at a current price of $25.17. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #152 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (89th percentile) and value (82th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (28th percentile) and stability (74th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (47/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

EZCORP INC holds a top-quartile position (#4 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.1/100 places it at rank #152 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.2B in market capitalization, EZCORP INC is a small-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 36% and momentum in the 89th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 28th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 58% (+22.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+9.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 9.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 16%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $25.17, EZCORP INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 82/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.3x (a 43% discount to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 12.1x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 1.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to EZCORP INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.33, conservative leverage (48% D/E), and a stability factor in the 74th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.33 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 74th percentile and quality factor at the 77th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 58% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (74th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate EZCORP INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 11.9%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 48%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; EZCORP INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, EZCORP INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.1/100 (rank #152 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (47/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 70/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on EZCORP INC. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.