DKNG

We rate DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) as Avoid with a composite score of 35.3/100 at a current price of $22.39. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (48th percentile) and value (39th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (24th percentile) and quality (26th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (38/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

DraftKings Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 35.3/100 places it at rank #4087 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $33.3B market capitalization, DraftKings Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 4%, though momentum at the 24th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 37% (-22.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -11% (-14.6pp vs sector) and net margins of -10.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -28%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $22.39, DraftKings Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 39/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 2181.0x (a 9087% premium to the sector median of 23.7x), P/B of 17.4x, P/S of 2.1x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to DraftKings Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (618% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -10.3%), weak quality scores (26th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (618% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -10.3%); weak quality scores (26th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 2181.0x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 48th percentile and quality factor at the 26th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate DraftKings Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-67.5%), elevated leverage (618% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -9.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — DraftKings Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, DraftKings Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 35.3/100 (rank #4087 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (38/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 33/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on DraftKings Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.