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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2696
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$7.3B
John W. Casella
Casella Waste Systems operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. The company owns and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = CWST ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CWST CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC | 46 | 33 | 41 | 64 | 375.2x | 79.6x | 1.0% | 0.5% | 34.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 28.7% | 0.0% | 111.0x | $7.3B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC (CWST) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 45.7/100. It ranks #2696 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for CWST.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 33 | 21 | +12ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 64 | 70 | -6DRAG |
| VALUATION | 41 | 38 | +3NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 23 | 10 | +13ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 90 | 96 | -6DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 42 | 36 | +6ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 1.0% (sector 5.7%)
GM 34% vs sector 65%, OM 4% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 29%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC (CWST) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.7/100 at a current price of $91.88. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.7/100 places it at rank #2696 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 29% and momentum in the 64th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
Medium
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 375.2x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 111% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 45.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2696 out of 7,333 stocks. CWST's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
CWST's quality score of 33/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 1.0% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 34.2% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of 0.9% (sector avg: 2.8%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 41/100, CWST appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 375.23x, an EV/EBITDA of 79.58x, a P/B ratio of 3.86x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC's investment score of 23/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 28.7% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of 0.5% (sector: 2.4%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
CWST demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 64/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 28.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.43 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC earns an excellent stability score of 90/100, reflecting low price volatility and a conservatively managed balance sheet. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.43 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 111.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Stocks with this level of stability tend to act as portfolio anchors, providing downside protection during market corrections while still participating in broad market advances.
The short interest score of 42/100 for CWST suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 111.00x). With a $7.3B market cap (mid-cap), CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC is a mid-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2696 of 7,333 overall (63rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 1.0% trailing the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of 4.2% below the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While CWST currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Investment (23) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 578% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 82% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 47% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. announced an agreement to acquire Mountain State Waste, expanding its services into West Virginia and parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky. The acquisition, expected to close in Q4 2025 pending regulatory approvals, is projected to generate approximately $30 million in annualized revenues. This move aligns with Casella's growth strategy by entering adjacent markets and retaining a key founder from Mountain State Waste.
Casella Waste Systems, a little-known stock, has outperformed top stocks like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Amazon over the past 10 years, with a nearly 2,600% gain. The company's growth strategy, recession-resilient business, and potential for further acquisitions make it an attractive long-term investment, though investors should be mindful of the valuation.
Casella Waste Systems (NASDAQ: CWST) has outperformed the market over the past two decades, achieving an average annual return of 10.81%. An initial investment of $100 in CWST stock 20 years ago would now be worth $769.30, demonstrating the significant impact of compounded returns on investment growth. The company currently has a market capitalization of $6.41 billion.
Casella Waste Systems (NASDAQ: CWST) has significantly outperformed the market over the last decade, with an annualized return of 32.69%. A $1000 investment made 10 years ago in CWST would now be worth $16,892.37, highlighting the power of compounded returns.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with revenues up 17.9% to $485.4 million and net income up 73.0% to $10.0 million. The company also saw significant growth in Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, driven by acquisitions and organic growth. Casella is increasing the lower end of its 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance due to strong year-to-date performance.