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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2078
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Transportation
$542M
David R. Parker
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards. The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods. The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CVLG COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. | 50 | 41 | 42 | 56 | 18.2x | 5.3x | 9.1% | 3.8% | 38.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 142.0x | $542M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. (CVLG) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 49.6/100. It ranks #2078 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for CVLG.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 41 | 40 | +1NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 56 | 60 | -4NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 42 | 43 | -1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 38 | 57 | -19DRAG |
| STABILITY | 38 | 37 | +1NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 63 | 72 | -9DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 7.2% (spread -5.5%)
GM 38% vs sector 53%, OM 4% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 1.06x
Rev growth 3%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 2.3x, Net debt/EBITDA 9.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. (CVLG) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.6/100 at a current price of $28.13. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.6/100 places it at rank #2078 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 142% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 49.6/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2078 out of 7,333 stocks. CVLG's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
CVLG's quality score of 41/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 9.1% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 38.0% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of 3.3% (sector avg: 7.7%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 42/100, CVLG appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 18.23x, an EV/EBITDA of 5.30x, a P/B ratio of 1.66x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC.'s investment score of 38/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 3.3% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of 3.8% (sector: 3.2%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
CVLG demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 56/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 3.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.23 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
CVLG's stability score of 38/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 142.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
CVLG carries a short interest score of 63/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.23), elevated leverage (D/E: 142.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $542M market cap (small-cap), COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
CVLG offers a modest dividend yield of 1.2%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.4%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2078 of 7,333 overall (72nd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 9.1% trailing the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of 3.7% below the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While CVLG currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Investment (38) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 13% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 24% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 28% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Even if they go mostly unnoticed, industrial businesses are the backbone of our country. But their prominence also brings high exposure to the ups and downs of economic cycles. Luckily, the tide is turning in their favor as the industry’s 17.5% return over the past six months has topped the S&P 500 by 10.2 percentage points.
Covenant Logistics currently trades at $28.57 and has been a dream stock for shareholders. It’s returned 219% since February 2021, tripling the S&P 500’s 73.7% gain. The company has also beaten the index over the past six months as its stock price is up 21%.
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