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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
10.8%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.68%
Trailing Yield
$3.68
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
58%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.6/100, ranked #124 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 68/100, Momentum 56/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Coterra Energy Inc. Do?
Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It primarily focuses on the Marcellus Shale with approximately 177,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. The company also holds Permian Basin properties with approximately 306,000 net acres; and Anadarko Basin properties located in Oklahoma with approximately 182,000 net acres. In addition, it operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,892,582 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, which include 189,429 thousand barrels of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, 14,895 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 220,615 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Thomas E. Jorden and employs approximately 980 people, headquartered in Houston, Texas. With a market capitalization of $25.8B, CTRA is one of the prominent companies in the Energy sector.
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Coterra Energy Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.CTRA ranks #124 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, Coterra Energy Inc. ranks #23 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
CTRA Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) currently trades at $33.41. The stock lost $0.07 (0.2%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for CTRA is $33.49, which means the stock is currently trading -0.2% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $22.33, putting the stock 49.6% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 5.4M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is CTRA Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) carries a value factor score of 68/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 15.87x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a discount of 19%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.71x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.61x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, CTRA trades at 13.24x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Overall, CTRA's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Coterra Energy Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 10.8%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 6.6% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, Coterra Energy Inc. reports gross margins of 87.3%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 30.7% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 22.3%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Revenue growth is running at 43.0% on a trailing basis, compared to -1.2% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
CTRA Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Coterra Energy Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 26.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.19x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $3.82B. Cash and equivalents stand at $98M.
CTRA has a beta of 0.53, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Coterra Energy Inc. is 80/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Coterra Energy Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Coterra Energy Inc. reported revenue of $7.04B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.25. Net income for the quarter was $1.60B. Gross margin was 87.3%. Operating income came in at $2.21B.
In FY 2025, Coterra Energy Inc. reported revenue of $7.64B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.25. Net income for the quarter was $1.72B. Gross margin was 86.6%. Revenue grew 40.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $2.45B.
In Q3 2025, Coterra Energy Inc. reported revenue of $1.82B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42. Net income for the quarter was $322M. Gross margin was 84.9%. Revenue grew 33.7% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $471M.
In Q2 2025, Coterra Energy Inc. reported revenue of $1.97B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67. Net income for the quarter was $511M. Gross margin was 88.0%. Revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $708M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Coterra Energy Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.27B to $7.04B. Investors analyzing CTRA stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
CTRA Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.7%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in CTRA stock would generate approximately $$368.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Energy sector average dividend yield of 1.9%, meaning CTRA offers above-average income for its sector. With a net margin of 22.3%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
CTRA Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) has a momentum factor score of 56/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 23/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 42/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
CTRA vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing CTRA against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full CTRA vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Coterra Energy Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
CTRA Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy CTRA? — Investment Thesis Summary
Coterra Energy Inc. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 68/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 80/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on CTRA stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) receives a Hold rating, justified by a balanced assessment of its operational strengths and financial vulnerabilities. While the company exhibits robust profitability metrics and operates in a sector with favorable tailwinds, its negative free cash flow and reliance on commodity price stability present significant concerns. The Hold rating reflects the need for improved capital allocation and a more sustainable cash flow profile before a more bullish stance can be warranted.
The primary takeaway is that Coterra's valuation appears reasonable relative to its peers, but its ability to generate consistent free cash flow is questionable. Investors should closely monitor the company's capital expenditure plans and its ability to navigate volatile commodity markets to determine if a more favorable rating is justified in the future. The company's high gross and operating margins are attractive, but they are heavily dependent on maintaining high commodity prices, which introduces substantial risk.
Business Strategy & Overview
Coterra Energy Inc. operates as an independent oil and gas company, focusing on the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the United States. The company's strategy centers on maximizing shareholder returns through efficient capital allocation and operational excellence across its diverse asset base, which includes significant holdings in the Marcellus Shale, Permian Basin, and Anadarko Basin. Coterra aims to optimize production by employing advanced drilling and completion techniques, while also focusing on cost reduction and environmental stewardship.
The company's revenue streams are primarily derived from the sale of natural gas, oil, and NGLs to a variety of customers, including industrial consumers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline operators, and power generation facilities. Coterra's strategic positioning involves leveraging its geographical diversification to mitigate regional price fluctuations and optimize its product mix based on market demand. The company also operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas, adding a midstream component to its operations.
Coterra's strategic focus on the Marcellus Shale, with approximately 177,000 net acres, highlights its emphasis on natural gas production. The Permian Basin properties, encompassing around 306,000 net acres, provide exposure to oil and NGLs, diversifying its revenue base. The Anadarko Basin properties in Oklahoma, with approximately 182,000 net acres, further contribute to its overall production portfolio. This diversified asset base allows Coterra to adapt to changing market conditions and capitalize on opportunities across different hydrocarbon commodities.
The company's business model is heavily influenced by commodity prices, and its profitability is directly correlated with the prevailing prices of natural gas, oil, and NGLs. Coterra actively manages its commodity price risk through hedging strategies, but these strategies can only partially mitigate the impact of significant price declines. The company's success depends on its ability to efficiently extract and transport its products to market, while also maintaining a disciplined approach to capital spending and cost control. Furthermore, Coterra's commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles is increasingly important, as investors and regulators place greater emphasis on sustainable practices in the energy sector.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
43.0%
Sector: -1.2%
-3772% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Coterra Energy's economic moat is best characterized as Narrow. While the company possesses certain advantages, they are not substantial enough to create a wide and sustainable competitive edge. The primary source of Coterra's narrow moat stems from its cost advantages in specific basins, particularly the Marcellus Shale, where it benefits from relatively low extraction costs due to favorable geological conditions and established infrastructure.
The company's significant acreage in the Marcellus Shale provides a degree of scale and efficiency, allowing it to achieve lower per-unit production costs compared to some competitors. However, this cost advantage is not insurmountable, as other operators in the region can also achieve similar efficiencies through technological advancements and operational improvements. Furthermore, the Marcellus Shale is a highly competitive market, with numerous players vying for market share, which limits Coterra's pricing power.
Coterra's presence in the Permian and Anadarko Basins also contributes to its overall competitive position, but these regions are characterized by intense competition and varying cost structures. While the company may have localized cost advantages in certain areas, these are not sufficient to create a wide moat. The energy sector, in general, is highly cyclical and subject to volatile commodity prices, which further erodes the potential for sustainable competitive advantages.
Intangible assets, such as proprietary technology or brand recognition, are not significant drivers of Coterra's competitive advantage. The company relies on standard industry practices and technologies for exploration and production, and its brand is not a major differentiator in the market. Network effects are also not relevant to Coterra's business model, as its operations are primarily focused on production and transportation, rather than creating a network of users or customers. Switching costs are also low, as customers can easily switch between different suppliers of natural gas, oil, and NGLs.
Efficient scale, while present to some extent, is not a dominant factor in Coterra's moat. While the company benefits from economies of scale in its operations, these are not unique to Coterra and can be replicated by other large operators. Therefore, while Coterra possesses some advantages, they are not strong enough to create a wide and sustainable economic moat. The company's narrow moat is primarily based on cost advantages in specific basins, but this advantage is vulnerable to competition and commodity price fluctuations.
Financial Health & Profitability
Coterra Energy's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company exhibits strong profitability metrics, with a gross margin of 87.3%, an operating margin of 30.7%, and a net margin of 22.3%, all significantly higher than the sector averages of 55.1%, 10.6%, and 6.3%, respectively. The company's ROE of 10.8% also exceeds the sector average of 6.9%, indicating efficient use of equity. Revenue growth is also impressive, with a TTM revenue growth of 43.0% compared to the sector's -1.7%.
However, a significant concern arises from the company's negative free cash flow of -$3.94 billion. This indicates that Coterra is spending more cash than it is generating from its operations, which could strain its financial resources over time. While the company has a current ratio of 1.19, suggesting adequate short-term liquidity, the negative free cash flow raises questions about its long-term sustainability. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 26.00 is relatively low compared to the sector average of 55.00, indicating a conservative approach to leverage.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a trend of fluctuating revenue and net income. While gross margins have remained consistently high, operating margins have varied, reflecting changes in operating expenses and commodity prices. For example, Q1 2023 saw a high operating margin of 49.4%, while Q2 2023 experienced a lower margin of 23.3%. This volatility highlights the company's sensitivity to market conditions and its ability to manage costs effectively.
The absence of free cash flow data in the quarterly history makes it difficult to assess the company's cash flow generation trends over time. However, the negative free cash flow in the TTM period suggests that the company may be investing heavily in capital expenditures or experiencing operational challenges that are impacting its cash flow. Investors should closely monitor Coterra's capital expenditure plans and its ability to improve its cash flow generation in future periods.
Overall, Coterra's financial health is characterized by strong profitability and revenue growth, but its negative free cash flow is a significant concern. The company's low debt-to-equity ratio provides some financial flexibility, but it needs to address its cash flow issues to ensure long-term sustainability. The fluctuating quarterly results highlight the company's sensitivity to market conditions and the importance of effective cost management.
Valuation Assessment
Coterra Energy's valuation presents a mixed picture when compared to its peers and historical performance. The company's P/E ratio of 15.1x is lower than the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.0x is also lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating potential undervaluation. However, these multiples should be interpreted with caution, as they do not fully account for the company's negative free cash flow and its sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations.
Given the negative free cash flow, traditional valuation metrics like discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis become less reliable. The negative FCF suggests that the company is either investing heavily in growth or struggling to generate sufficient cash from its operations. In either case, it makes it difficult to project future cash flows with confidence. The company's high revenue growth of 43.0% could justify a higher valuation, but this growth is heavily dependent on maintaining high commodity prices, which introduces significant risk.
Comparing Coterra's valuation to its historical performance is challenging due to the limited data available. However, the company's strong profitability metrics, such as its high gross and operating margins, suggest that it is a well-managed and efficient operator. This could justify a premium valuation compared to its peers. However, the negative free cash flow and the volatile nature of the energy sector should also be taken into account.
Overall, Coterra's valuation appears reasonable relative to its peers, but it is not necessarily a bargain. The company's low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest potential undervaluation, but its negative free cash flow and sensitivity to commodity prices warrant caution. Investors should closely monitor the company's capital expenditure plans and its ability to improve its cash flow generation before making a decision. A more favorable valuation may be justified if the company can demonstrate a sustainable improvement in its cash flow profile and maintain its strong profitability metrics.
Risk & Uncertainty
Coterra Energy faces several key risks that could significantly impact its financial performance and valuation. The most prominent risk is its exposure to volatile commodity prices. The prices of natural gas, oil, and NGLs are subject to fluctuations based on supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and weather patterns. A significant decline in commodity prices could reduce Coterra's revenue and profitability, potentially leading to lower earnings and a decline in its stock price. While the company uses hedging strategies to mitigate this risk, these strategies may not fully protect it from severe price declines.
Another significant risk is related to regulatory and environmental factors. The energy sector is subject to stringent regulations regarding drilling, production, and transportation of oil and gas. Changes in these regulations could increase Coterra's operating costs and limit its ability to develop new projects. Furthermore, growing concerns about climate change and the environmental impact of fossil fuels could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny and pressure to transition to cleaner energy sources. This could negatively impact the long-term demand for Coterra's products.
Competition within the energy sector is also a significant risk. Coterra operates in a highly competitive market with numerous players vying for market share. Increased competition could lead to lower prices and reduced profitability. The company also faces competition from alternative energy sources, such as solar and wind power, which are becoming increasingly cost-competitive. This could further erode the demand for Coterra's products over time.
Capital allocation risk is also present, given the company's negative free cash flow. Coterra needs to carefully manage its capital expenditures to ensure that it is investing in projects that generate sufficient returns. Poor capital allocation decisions could lead to further cash flow problems and a decline in its financial health. The company's reliance on external financing to fund its operations also exposes it to interest rate risk and the availability of credit.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWCoterra's strategic asset base in key shale regions positions it to capitalize on rising global energy demand, particularly for natural gas.
BULL VIEWThe company's strong profitability metrics, including high gross and operating margins, demonstrate its operational efficiency and ability to generate attractive returns.
BULL VIEWCoterra's relatively low debt-to-equity ratio provides financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and navigate volatile commodity markets.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWCoterra's negative free cash flow raises concerns about its long-term financial sustainability and ability to fund future growth without relying on external financing.
BEAR VIEWThe company's heavy reliance on volatile commodity prices exposes it to significant downside risk if prices decline, potentially impacting its revenue and profitability.
BEAR VIEWIncreased regulatory scrutiny and growing environmental concerns could limit Coterra's ability to develop new projects and reduce the long-term demand for its products.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score CTRA and 4,400+ other equities.
Coterra Energy Inc. exhibits a 233% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
6.6%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
87.3%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
30.7%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
22.3%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield1.89%
Yield Delta+95%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $368 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
