IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
13.3%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.30%
Trailing Yield
$3.30
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
59%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
Sign up for free access to institutional-quality research tools.
Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 52.8/100, ranked #90 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 67/100, Momentum 57/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does CONOCOPHILLIPS Do?
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Ryan M. Lance and employs approximately 9,500 people, headquartered in Houston, Texas. With a market capitalization of $156.5B, COP is one of the prominent companies in the Energy sector.
As of April 2026, CONOCOPHILLIPS receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 52.8/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.COP ranks #90 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, CONOCOPHILLIPS ranks #16 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
COP Stock Price and 52-Week Range
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) currently trades at $122.76. The stock lost $0.71 (0.6%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for COP is $124.87, which means the stock is currently trading -1.7% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $79.88, putting the stock 53.7% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 10.5M shares, indicating strong institutional interest and high liquidity.
Is COP Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) carries a value factor score of 67/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 17.74x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a discount of 10%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.37x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.60x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, COP trades at 14.66x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Overall, COP's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
CONOCOPHILLIPS Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 13.3%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 7.1% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, CONOCOPHILLIPS reports gross margins of 62.7%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 22.7% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 14.6%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Revenue growth is running at 10.4% on a trailing basis, compared to -1.2% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
COP Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
CONOCOPHILLIPS has a debt-to-equity ratio of 89.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. The current ratio is 1.30x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $23.48B. Cash and equivalents stand at $5.26B.
COP has a beta of 0.86, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for CONOCOPHILLIPS is 73/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
CONOCOPHILLIPS Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, CONOCOPHILLIPS reported revenue of $58.59B and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.36. Net income for the quarter was $8.61B. Gross margin was 62.7%. Operating income came in at $10.41B.
In FY 2025, CONOCOPHILLIPS reported revenue of $58.94B and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.36. Net income for the quarter was $7.99B. Gross margin was 62.1%. Revenue grew 7.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $12.66B.
In Q3 2025, CONOCOPHILLIPS reported revenue of $15.03B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.38. Net income for the quarter was $1.73B. Gross margin was 61.0%. Revenue grew 15.3% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $2.93B.
In Q2 2025, CONOCOPHILLIPS reported revenue of $14.00B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56. Net income for the quarter was $1.97B. Gross margin was 63.7%. Revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $3.02B.
Over the past 8 quarters, CONOCOPHILLIPS has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $13.62B to $58.59B. Investors analyzing COP stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
COP Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.3%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in COP stock would generate approximately $$330.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Energy sector average dividend yield of 1.9%, meaning COP offers above-average income for its sector. The net margin of 14.6% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
COP Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a momentum factor score of 57/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 29/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 33/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
COP vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing COP against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full COP vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how CONOCOPHILLIPS stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
COP Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy COP? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for CONOCOPHILLIPS rests on several quantitative strengths. The value score of 67/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 73/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 52.8/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on COP stock.
We'll email you when stocks you follow change their composite rating.
Institutional Research Dossier
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
ConocoPhillips (COP) receives a Hold rating, justified by a composite score of 51.4/100, placing it in the middle of its peer group. While the company exhibits strong profitability and returns relative to the energy sector, its negative free cash flow and relatively high debt levels raise concerns. The current valuation appears fair, but the inherent volatility of the energy sector and the company's capital allocation decisions warrant a cautious approach.
The primary takeaway is that ConocoPhillips, while a well-managed energy company, faces challenges in consistently generating free cash flow and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Its performance is heavily influenced by commodity prices, making it a cyclical investment. Investors should carefully consider the risks associated with the energy sector and the company's capital allocation strategy before making an investment decision.
Business Strategy & Overview
ConocoPhillips operates as a global exploration and production (E&P) company, focusing on discovering, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. The company's strategy centers around maximizing shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation, operational excellence, and a diversified portfolio of assets. This includes both conventional and unconventional resources, spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. A key aspect of their strategy involves investing in low-cost-of-supply projects and optimizing existing assets to enhance production efficiency and reduce operating costs.
The company's revenue generation is directly tied to commodity prices and production volumes. ConocoPhillips actively manages its portfolio by divesting non-core assets and acquiring strategic properties to strengthen its competitive position. Their focus on LNG development reflects a long-term view of the global energy market, anticipating increased demand for cleaner-burning fuels. Furthermore, ConocoPhillips emphasizes technological innovation to improve drilling techniques, enhance reservoir management, and reduce environmental impact.
ConocoPhillips' strategic positioning within the energy sector is as a large-cap independent E&P company. This independence allows them to be more agile and responsive to market conditions compared to integrated oil majors. However, it also exposes them more directly to commodity price fluctuations. The company competes with other major E&P companies, as well as national oil companies, for access to resources and market share. Their success depends on their ability to efficiently manage costs, maintain operational excellence, and make sound investment decisions.
ConocoPhillips' product pipeline consists of various projects in different stages of development, ranging from exploration to production. These projects are geographically diverse and target a mix of conventional and unconventional resources. The company's capital allocation decisions are guided by a rigorous investment framework that prioritizes projects with the highest potential returns and lowest risk. This framework considers factors such as commodity prices, production costs, and regulatory requirements. The company's commitment to sustainability is also increasingly influencing its investment decisions, with a focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing environmental impact.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
10.4%
Sector: -1.2%
-985% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
ConocoPhillips possesses a narrow economic moat. This assessment stems from a combination of factors, primarily related to cost advantages in specific areas and the scale of their operations. While the company doesn't exhibit the wide moat characteristics of companies with strong brand recognition or network effects, it does benefit from certain competitive advantages that allow it to generate returns above its cost of capital for a limited period.
One source of ConocoPhillips' narrow moat is its access to certain low-cost-of-supply resources. Their investments in specific regions and technologies have enabled them to extract oil and gas at competitive prices, giving them an edge over some competitors. However, this advantage is not insurmountable, as other companies can also access similar resources or develop competing technologies. Furthermore, the cyclical nature of commodity prices can erode this cost advantage during periods of low prices.
Efficient scale also contributes to the company's narrow moat. ConocoPhillips' large-scale operations allow it to achieve economies of scale in production, transportation, and marketing. This enables them to lower their per-unit costs and improve their profitability. However, this advantage is not unique to ConocoPhillips, as other large E&P companies also benefit from similar economies of scale. The company's intangible assets, such as proprietary technologies and expertise in reservoir management, also provide a modest competitive advantage. These assets allow them to improve production efficiency and reduce operating costs.
However, the energy sector is inherently competitive, and ConocoPhillips faces intense competition from other E&P companies, as well as national oil companies. The company's competitive advantages are not strong enough to prevent competitors from entering the market or eroding its profitability. Furthermore, the cyclical nature of commodity prices and the regulatory environment can significantly impact the company's performance. Therefore, while ConocoPhillips possesses a narrow economic moat, it is not a particularly strong or durable one.
Financial Health & Profitability
ConocoPhillips' financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's revenue has shown growth, with TTM revenue at $58.94B compared to $54.74B in FY2024 and $56.14B in FY2023. This indicates a positive trend in revenue generation. Gross margins are also strong, consistently above 60% in recent periods, and significantly higher than the sector average of 55.1%. Operating and net margins also outperform the sector, suggesting efficient operations and cost management.
However, the company's free cash flow is a significant concern. The TTM free cash flow is reported as negative $18.22B, which is a substantial outflow. This could be due to significant capital expenditures or other investments. While the quarterly data doesn't provide FCF figures, the negative TTM FCF warrants further investigation into the company's capital allocation strategy. The company's return on equity (ROE) of 13.3% is strong and significantly higher than the sector average of 6.9%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits.
ConocoPhillips' balance sheet shows total cash of $5.26B and total debt of $23.48B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 89.00, which is higher than the sector average of 55.00. This indicates a higher level of leverage compared to its peers. The current ratio of 1.30 suggests that the company has sufficient liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities. The trend in net income has been volatile, with $7.99B in the latest TTM period, compared to $9.24B in FY2024 and $10.96B in FY2023. This volatility is likely due to fluctuations in commodity prices.
Overall, ConocoPhillips exhibits strong profitability and returns, but its negative free cash flow and relatively high debt levels are areas of concern. The company's financial health is heavily influenced by commodity prices, making it a cyclical investment. Investors should carefully monitor the company's capital allocation decisions and its ability to generate positive free cash flow in the future.
Valuation Assessment
ConocoPhillips' valuation presents a mixed picture when compared to its peers and historical performance. The company's P/E ratio of 20.0x is slightly higher than the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the market is pricing the company at a slight premium compared to its peers. However, the EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.1x is lower than the sector average of 3.5x, indicating that the company may be undervalued on an enterprise value basis.
Given the company's recent net income of $7.99B and a market cap of $155.14B, the current valuation appears fair. However, the negative free cash flow of -$18.22B raises concerns about the sustainability of the company's earnings. A positive FCF yield would typically indicate a more attractive valuation, but the negative FCF makes it difficult to assess the company's true value based on this metric.
Considering the company's revenue growth of 10.4% compared to the sector's negative growth of -1.7%, ConocoPhillips is performing well relative to its peers. However, the volatility in commodity prices and the cyclical nature of the energy sector make it challenging to accurately predict future earnings and cash flows. The company's strong ROE of 13.3% suggests that it is efficiently using its equity to generate profits, which could justify a higher valuation.
Overall, ConocoPhillips' valuation appears fair, but the negative free cash flow and the inherent volatility of the energy sector warrant a cautious approach. Investors should carefully consider the risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and the company's capital allocation decisions before making an investment decision. A more attractive entry point may present itself if the company can improve its free cash flow generation and reduce its debt levels.
Risk & Uncertainty
ConocoPhillips faces several key risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and stock price. The most significant risk is its exposure to commodity price volatility. Fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices can significantly impact the company's revenue, earnings, and cash flow. A sustained period of low commodity prices could negatively affect the company's profitability and its ability to invest in future growth projects.
Another risk is related to regulatory and environmental factors. The energy sector is subject to stringent regulations regarding environmental protection, safety, and emissions. Changes in these regulations could increase the company's operating costs and limit its ability to develop certain resources. Furthermore, increasing public awareness of climate change and the transition to renewable energy sources could reduce demand for fossil fuels and negatively impact the company's long-term prospects.
Geopolitical risks also pose a significant threat to ConocoPhillips. The company operates in various regions around the world, some of which are politically unstable. Political instability, armed conflicts, and changes in government policies could disrupt the company's operations and impact its access to resources. Additionally, competition from other E&P companies and national oil companies could put pressure on the company's margins and market share.
Finally, the company's high debt levels could pose a risk if interest rates rise or if the company experiences a period of low profitability. High debt levels can limit the company's financial flexibility and increase its vulnerability to economic downturns. The negative free cash flow also raises concerns about the company's ability to fund its capital expenditures and dividend payments in the future.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWConocoPhillips' disciplined capital allocation and focus on low-cost-of-supply assets will allow it to generate strong returns even in a volatile commodity price environment.
BULL VIEWThe company's diversified portfolio of assets and its investments in LNG development position it to benefit from the growing global demand for energy.
BULL VIEWConocoPhillips' strong balance sheet and commitment to shareholder returns make it an attractive investment in the energy sector.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWConocoPhillips' negative free cash flow and high debt levels raise concerns about its financial sustainability and its ability to fund future growth.
BEAR VIEWThe company's reliance on commodity prices makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations and regulatory changes.
BEAR VIEWThe transition to renewable energy sources poses a long-term threat to the demand for fossil fuels and could negatively impact ConocoPhillips' future prospects.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score COP and 4,400+ other equities.
CONOCOPHILLIPS exhibits a 202% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
7.1%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
62.7%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
22.7%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
14.6%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield1.89%
Yield Delta+75%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $330 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
