CMCM

We rate Cheetah Mobile Inc. (CMCM) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.8/100 at a current price of $5.72. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (66th percentile) and investment (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (14th percentile) and quality (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (37/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Cheetah Mobile Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.8/100 places it at rank #3150 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $687M in market capitalization, Cheetah Mobile Inc. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 17% and momentum in the 66th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 56th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 68% (+8.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -54% (-57.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -74.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -110%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $5.72, Cheetah Mobile Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 14/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.4x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Cheetah Mobile Inc.. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -74.6%), weak quality scores (34th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -74.6%); weak quality scores (34th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 45th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 68% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Cheetah Mobile Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-126.6%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -43.7%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Cheetah Mobile Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Cheetah Mobile Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 42.8/100 (rank #3150 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (37/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Cheetah Mobile Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.