CIG

We rate ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS (CIG) as a Buy with a composite score of 71.1/100 at a current price of $2.36. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #75 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (93th percentile) and quality (84th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (52/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS holds an above-average position (#17 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 71.1/100 places it at rank #75 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $5.0B in market capitalization, ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -15% combined with momentum at the 53th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 20% (-34.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 26% (+8.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 17.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 87%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $2.36, ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 93/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 1.4x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 0.3x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.40, conservative leverage (45% D/E), and a stability factor in the 67th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.40 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 67th percentile and quality factor at the 84th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (67th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 12.69% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 104.0%, disciplined leverage (45% D/E), a 12.69% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 12.69% dividend yield, and the combination of 47.7% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 71.1/100 (rank #75 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (52/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 71/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.