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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2727
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Healthcare
$774M
Reginald Seeto
CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients. AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution, is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = CDNA ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CDNA CareDx, Inc. | 46 | 51 | 37 | 68 | 626.3x | 33.7x | -7.9% | -5.7% | 69.0% | -10.4% | -7.3% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 39.0x | $774M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 45.5/100. It ranks #2727 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for CDNA.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 51 | 59 | -8DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 68 | 76 | -8DRAG |
| VALUATION | 37 | 32 | +5NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 24 | 11 | +13ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 42 | 40 | +2NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 22 | 7 | +15ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -7.9% (sector 5.7%)
GM 69% vs sector 65%, OM -10% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 19.2%
Rev growth 8%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.5/100 at a current price of $20.00. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
CareDx, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.5/100 places it at rank #2727 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 8% and momentum in the 68th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 69% signal strong pricing power.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 626.3x leaves little room for execution misses.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
CareDx, Inc. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
CareDx, Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 45.5/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2727 out of 7,333 stocks. CDNA's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 51/100, CDNA shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -7.9% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 69.0% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of -7.3% (sector avg: 2.8%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 37/100, CDNA appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 626.33x, an EV/EBITDA of 33.70x, a P/B ratio of 3.11x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
CareDx, Inc.'s investment score of 24/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 8.4% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of -5.7% (sector: 2.4%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
CDNA demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 68/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 8.4% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.24 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
CDNA's stability score of 42/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.24 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 39.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
CareDx, Inc.'s short interest score of 22/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.24), elevated leverage (D/E: 39.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $774M (small-cap), CDNA carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
CareDx, Inc. is a small-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2727 of 7,333 overall (63rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -7.9% trailing the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of -10.4% below the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While CDNA currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Short Int. (22) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 187% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 238% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 7% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
BRISBANE, Calif., February 24, 2026--CareDx, Inc. (Nasdaq: CDNA) — The Transplant Company™, a leading precision medicine company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high‑value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers, today announced that Keith Kennedy, the Company’s Chief Operating Officer (COO), will also assume the responsibilities of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and oversee the Company’s finance organization effective
BRISBANE, Calif., February 24, 2026--CareDx, Inc. (Nasdaq: CDNA) — The Transplant Company™, a leading precision medicine company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high‑value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers, today reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025.
CareDx CEO John Walter Hanna Jr. sold 19,480 shares on January 21-22, 2026, totaling approximately $412,200 at an average price of $21.16 per share through a pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale reduced his direct holdings by 3.16%, leaving him with 597,405 shares. The article notes this shouldn't concern investors, as the company reported strong Q4 2025 preliminary results with $108 million in revenue (25% YoY growth) and expects continued growth in 2026 from its testing solutions.
CareDx (CDNA) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -48.94% and +5.66%, respectively, for the quarter ended December 2025. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Providing a diverse range of perspectives from bullish to bearish, 6 analysts have published ratings on CareDx (NASDAQ:CDNA) in the last three months. The table below summarizes their recent ratings, showcasing the evolving sentiments within the past 30 days and comparing them to the preceding months. Bullish Somewhat Bullish Indifferent Somewhat Bearish Bearish Total Ratings 4 2 0 0 0 Last 30D 0 0 0 0 0 1M Ago 4 1 0 0 0 2M Ago 0 1 0 0 0 3M Ago 0 0 0 0 0 Insights from analysts' 12-month price targets are revealed, presenting an average target of $16.5, a high estimate of $22.00, and a low estimate of $14.00. Observing a 26.92% increase, the current average has risen from the previous average price target of $13.00. Deciphering Analyst Ratings: An In-Depth Analysis The perception of CareDx by financial experts is analyzed through recent analyst actions. The following summary presents key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets. Analyst Analyst Firm Action Taken Rating Current Price Target Prior Price Target Connor Chamberlain Craig-Hallum Raises Buy $22.00 $15.00 Matthew Sykes Goldman Sachs Raises Buy $14.00 $10.00 Mason Carrico Stephens & Co. Raises Overweight $18.00 $15.00 Connor Chamberlain Craig-Hallum Maintains Buy $15.00 - Alexander Nowak Craig-Hallum Raises Buy $15.00 $12.00 Mason Carrico Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight $15.00 - Key Insights: Action Taken: Analysts adapt their recommendations to changing market conditions and company performance. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise' or 'Lower' their stance, it reflects their response to recent developments related to CareDx. This information provides a snapshot of how analysts perceive the current state of the company. Rating: Providing a comprehensive analysis, analysts offer qualitative ...Full story available on Benzinga.com