BTU

We rate PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.6/100 at a current price of $33.95. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (67th percentile) and quality (54th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (30th percentile) and stability (44th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (33/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

PEABODY ENERGY CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.6/100 places it at rank #1768 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.2B in market capitalization, PEABODY ENERGY CORP is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (67th percentile), revenue contraction of -3% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+56.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 1% (-11.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 1.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 1%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $33.95, PEABODY ENERGY CORP is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 30/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 72.0x (a 425% premium to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 126.6x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 1.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to PEABODY ENERGY CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 72.0x) that leaves limited margin for error and the combination of leverage (62% D/E) and thin margins (1.2% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 72.0x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (62% D/E) and thin margins (1.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 44th percentile and quality factor at the 54th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate PEABODY ENERGY CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (1.6%), weak asset returns (ROA 1.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — PEABODY ENERGY CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, PEABODY ENERGY CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.6/100 (rank #1768 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (33/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on PEABODY ENERGY CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.