BOOT

We rate Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.2/100 at a current price of $195.67. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (77th percentile) and quality (48th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (26th percentile) and value (43th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (50/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.2/100 places it at rank #1504 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $5.2B in market capitalization, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 66% and momentum in the 77th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 26th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 39% (+2.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 14% (+10.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 28%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $195.67, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 43/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 23.7x (roughly in line with the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 17.8x (at a premium), P/B of 4.7x, P/S of 2.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.50). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.50). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 47th percentile and quality factor at the 48th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 20.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 87%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.2/100 (rank #1504 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (50/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.