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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1937
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Computer Software
$22M
Gust C. Kepler
Blackboxstocks Inc. develops and markets financial technology and social media hybrid platform. It offers Blackbox System, a subscription-based software as a service that provides real-time analytics and news for stock and options traders. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = BLBX ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | 21.3% | 18.6% | 64.5% | 35.7% | 39.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $644M | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | 15.4% | 12.6% | 38.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | -39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $439M | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 28.1% | 16.8% | 48.1% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 78.6% | 0.0% | 37.0x | $220M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | 12.4% | 2.9% | 100.0% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 264.0x | $19.4B | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.6% | 7.8% | 43.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $857M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 18.0% | 4.6% | 97.3% | 52.2% | 32.7% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 271.0x | $8.0B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | 9.4% | 4.9% | 55.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 7.0x | $78.0B | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | 22.1% | 15.6% | 62.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 9.0x | $56.6B | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 21.4% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 27.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$BLBX BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. | 51 | 26 | 25 | 96 | - | - | -75.3% | -40.8% | 45.5% | -137.0% | -152.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 84.0x | $22M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.3% | 1.9% | 59.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. (BLBX) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 50.5/100. It ranks #1937 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Gust C. Kepler
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
40
26
46
25
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for BLBX
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for BLBX.
View All RatingsHigh margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 26 | 11 | +15ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 96 | 99 | -3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 25 | 16 | +9ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 46 | 80 | -34DRAG |
| STABILITY | 25 | 15 | +10ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 58 | 72 | -14DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -22.8% vs WACC 9.6% (spread -32.4%)
GM 46% vs sector 60%, OM -137% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover 0.46x
Rev growth 2%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -8.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 50.5/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1937 of 7,333 stocks, BLBX presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
BLBX's quality score of 26/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -75.3% (sector avg: 5.3%), gross margins of 45.5% (sector avg: 59.6%), net margins of -152.5% (sector avg: 2.3%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
BLBX registers a value score of just 25/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 11.79x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
With an investment score of 46/100, BLBX exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 1.8% vs. a sector average of 7.8% and a return on assets of -40.8% (sector: 1.9%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. (BLBX) is exhibiting exceptional momentum with a score of 96/100, placing it among the strongest trending stocks in the market. Revenue growth stands at 1.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.58 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Stocks with momentum scores this high have historically outperformed over the following 3–12 months, suggesting BLBX may continue to benefit from strong institutional interest and positive price trends.
BLBX's stability score of 25/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.58 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 84.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 58/100 for BLBX suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 1.58), elevated leverage (D/E: 84.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. With a $22M market cap (micro-cap), BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. is a micro-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1937 of 7,333 overall (74th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -75.3% trailing the 5.3% sector median and operating margins of -137.0% below the 3.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While BLBX currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Momentum (96) vs Value (25) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
ROE 1517% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 24% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Op. Margin 4002% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. (BLBX) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.5/100 at a current price of $18.00. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (96th percentile) and investment (46th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (25th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (15/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.5/100 places it at rank #1937 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $22M in market capitalization, BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 2% and favorable momentum (96th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 46% (-14.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -137% (-140.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -152.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -335%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $18.00, BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 11.8x, P/S of 23.0x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Gross margins of 46% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Positive momentum (96th percentile) indicates institutional accumulation and favorable technical dynamics that tend to persist in the intermediate term.
Thin net margins of -152.5% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Below-average quality (26th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
High beta of 1.58 means amplified losses in market selloffs — in a broad market correction, this stock would likely decline more than the index.
We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.58), current negative profitability (net margin -152.5%), below-average price stability (25th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.58); current negative profitability (net margin -152.5%); below-average price stability (25th percentile); weak quality scores (26th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 25th percentile and quality factor at the 26th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 46% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-75.3%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -40.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.5/100 (rank #1937 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (15/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 15/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -32.4% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 4.9/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (4.9/20) and financial resilience (4.9/20). Rev growth 2%, 10yr history. Interest coverage -8.0x. These pillars form the core of BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and economic value creation (2.6/20). Capital turnover 0.46x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 46% providing a solid profitability foundation. The margin cascade from 46% gross to -137% operating to -152.5% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 26th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 46%, operating margins of -137%, net margins of -152.5%. Return metrics include ROE of -75.3% and ROA of -40.8%. Relative to the Services sector, gross margins are 14.0 percentage points below the sector median of 60%, and ROE of -75.3% compares to a sector median of 5.3%.
The balance sheet reflects above-average leverage with D/E of 84%, revenue growth of 2%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Rare earth stocks gathered gained momentum on Tuesday as market prices for rare earth oxides have surged outside China, which may limit the need for price supports from the U.S. government. USA Rare Earth stock broke clear of its 50-moving average and may be worth a look. Blackboxstocks, a financial technology company, said its merger with rare-earth mining and magnet play REalloys will be finalized today and the combined companies will trade as REalloys starting on Wednesday.
Blackboxstocks, a financial technology company, said its merger with rare-earth mining and magnet play REalloys will be finalized today and the combined companies will trade as REalloys starting on Wednesday. REalloys aims to become the largest producer of heavy rare earth oxides and metals outside China by the first half of 2027. Meanwhile, the prices of heavy rare earth oxides have surged outside China, which may limit the need for price supports from the U.S. government.
Blackboxstocks Inc. (NASDAQ: BLBX) announced that NASDAQ has approved its listing application for the merger with REalloys Inc. The merger and related transactions are expected to close on February 24, 2026, after market close. Following the merger, REalloys will operate as a publicly traded, vertically integrated North American heavy rare earth platform focused on national security and defense-oriented supply chain resilience, with strategic objectives to become the largest producer of heavy rare earth oxides and metals outside of China by mid-2027.
Blackboxstocks Inc. (NASDAQ: BLBX) announced that its merger target REalloys Inc. has appointed retired four-star General Jack Keane to its Board of Directors. The appointment comes as REalloys' Form S-4 registration statement has been declared effective by the SEC, with the merger expected to close in the near term pending NASDAQ listing approval. General Keane brings extensive national security and strategic leadership experience to REalloys' mission of establishing a secure, Western-aligned rare earth supply chain for North America.
REalloys has partnered with the Saskatchewan Research Council to establish North America's first commercial-scale heavy rare earth production facility, investing $21 million to expand processing capacity and secure a domestic supply chain for critical materials, with commercial production expected in early 2027.