AWR

We rate AMERICAN STATES WATER CO (AWR) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.1/100 at a current price of $73.93. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (89th percentile) and quality (52th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (29th percentile) and investment (36th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (54/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

AMERICAN STATES WATER CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.1/100 places it at rank #2483 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.8B in market capitalization, AMERICAN STATES WATER CO is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 18%, though momentum at the 29th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 91% (+36.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 32% (+14.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 20.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 23%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $73.93, AMERICAN STATES WATER CO is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 46/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 20.5x (a 21% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.8x (at a premium), P/B of 2.7x, P/S of 4.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to AMERICAN STATES WATER CO. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (160% debt-to-equity) and low beta of -0.07 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (160% debt-to-equity); low beta of -0.07 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 89th percentile and quality factor at the 52th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 91% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (89th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.59% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate AMERICAN STATES WATER CO's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 13.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 160%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; AMERICAN STATES WATER CO falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 2.59% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, AMERICAN STATES WATER CO receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.1/100 (rank #2483 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (54/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 51/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on AMERICAN STATES WATER CO at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.