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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3234
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Transportation
$1.1B
John T. Redmond
Allegiant Travel Company provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company also provides third party travel products, such as hotel rooms and ground transportation.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ALGT Allegiant Travel CO | 42 | 27 | 33 | 66 | - | 20.3x | -11.2% | -2.6% | 25.0% | -2.5% | -4.8% | -15.7% | 0.0% | 203.0x | $1.1B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
Allegiant Travel CO (ALGT) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 42.3/100. It ranks #3234 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for ALGT.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 27 | 14 | +13ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 66 | 73 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 33 | 29 | +4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 28 | +3NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 16 | 9 | +7ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 23 | 12 | +11ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -1.2% vs WACC 8.0% (spread -9.3%)
GM 25% vs sector 53%, OM -3% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 0.32x
Rev growth -16%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -0.7x, Net debt/EBITDA 54.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Allegiant Travel CO (ALGT) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.3/100 at a current price of $103.65. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Allegiant Travel CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.3/100 places it at rank #3234 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at -16% and momentum in the 66th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 203% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Allegiant Travel CO represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Allegiant Travel CO receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 42.3/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3234 out of 7,333 stocks. ALGT's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
ALGT's quality score of 27/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -11.2% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 25.0% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of -4.8% (sector avg: 7.7%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 33/100, ALGT appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 20.27x, a P/B ratio of 1.94x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Allegiant Travel CO's investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -15.7% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of -2.6% (sector: 3.2%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
ALGT demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 66/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -15.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.94 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
Allegiant Travel CO registers a low stability score of 16/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.94 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 203.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
Allegiant Travel CO's short interest score of 23/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 1.94), elevated leverage (D/E: 203.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $1.1B (small-cap), ALGT carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Allegiant Travel CO is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3234 of 7,333 overall (56th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -11.2% trailing the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of -2.5% below the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While ALGT currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (16) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 232% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 194% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 52% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081

The fair value estimate for Allegiant Travel has shifted materially, moving from about US$99.40 to roughly US$114.27, as analysts recalibrate their views following sector updates and the company’s recent acquisition news. Behind this reset, research commentary highlights changing expectations for revenue growth and the long term earnings path that could come from a broader business mix and disciplined capacity plans. Stay tuned as we walk through what is driving this evolving narrative and...

Dow Theory, a century-old market framework, has triggered a rare buy signal as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average reached new highs simultaneously. Historically, such signals have preceded 11.1% average 12-month returns in the S&P 500, with stocks finishing higher 83% of the time. Transportation stocks have recently outperformed, with several names posting significant gains over the past three months.

Monteverde & Associates PC, a class action securities firm, has announced an investigation into Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. regarding its proposed acquisition by Allegiant Travel Company. Under the deal terms, Sun Country shareholders would receive 0.1557 shares of Allegiant common stock and $4.10 in cash per share. The firm is investigating whether the transaction represents a fair deal for shareholders.

Allegiant Travel announced an acquisition of Sun Country Airlines for approximately $1.5 billion, or $18.89 per share in cash and stock, representing a nearly 20% premium. The merger is expected to create a more diversified and efficient airline with $140 million in potential annual cost synergies by year three, with the deal projected to close in the second half of 2026.

Allegiant Travel Company announced a definitive agreement to acquire Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. for approximately $1.5 billion in a cash-and-stock deal. The combined company would serve 22 million passengers annually across 175 cities with 650+ routes. Allegiant expects $140 million in annual synergies by year three and projects EPS accretion in the first full year. The deal is expected to close in H2 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.