ALAR

We rate Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) as a Hold with a composite score of 59.7/100 at a current price of $6.72. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (99th percentile) and quality (90th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (27th percentile) and momentum (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Wide Moat rating (79/100), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is widening, which provides additional comfort in the durability of the competitive position.

Alarum Technologies Ltd. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 59.7/100 places it at rank #731 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $16M in market capitalization, Alarum Technologies Ltd. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 20%, though momentum at the 35th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 75% (+15.6pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 21% (+17.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 18.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 24%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $6.72, Alarum Technologies Ltd. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 99/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 75.8x (a 219% premium to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 1.2x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.9x, P/S of 0.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Alarum Technologies Ltd.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.71), below-average price stability (27th percentile), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 75.8x) that leaves limited margin for error. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.71); below-average price stability (27th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 75.8x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 27th percentile and quality factor at the 90th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 75% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (5% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 87.7%, disciplined leverage (5% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 18.2%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Alarum Technologies Ltd. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 66.4% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Alarum Technologies Ltd. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 59.7/100 (rank #731 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Wide Moat (79/100, trend: widening), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 59/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Alarum Technologies Ltd.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.