ABG

We rate ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC (ABG) as a Reduce with a composite score of 41.4/100 at a current price of $219.56. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (65th percentile) and value (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and quality (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (55/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 41.4/100 places it at rank #3366 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $4.8B in market capitalization, ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC is a mid-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 13%, though momentum at the 39th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 17% (-19.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (+1.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 19%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $219.56, ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 63/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 7.9x (a 63% discount to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 4.0x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 0.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (199% debt-to-equity) and the combination of leverage (199% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (199% debt-to-equity); the combination of leverage (199% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 65th percentile and quality factor at the 35th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (65th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (199% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 41.4/100 (rank #3366 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (55/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 45/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.