AAP

We rate ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.2/100 at a current price of $53.83. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (55th percentile) and value (52th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (33th percentile) and quality (33th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (40/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.2/100 places it at rank #2129 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.7B in market capitalization, ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC is a mid-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -21% combined with momentum at the 55th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 43% (+7.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 1% (-2.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 1%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $53.83, ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 52/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 119.9x (a 460% premium to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 27.4x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 0.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC. Key risk factors include significant leverage (155% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (38th percentile), weak quality scores (33th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (155% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (38th percentile); weak quality scores (33th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 119.9x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 38th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 43% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (1.3%), elevated leverage (155% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 49.2/100 (rank #2129 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (40/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 42/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.