USL

We rate United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.5/100 at a current price of $38.01. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (66th percentile) and quality (65th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (30/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.5/100 places it at rank #2246 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -52% combined with momentum at the 40th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 75% (+58.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 75.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 75%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $38.01, United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

Valuation multiples are not available for this company, which limits our ability to assess relative pricing. We rely more heavily on factor-based valuation signals in such cases.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.43, conservative leverage (0% D/E), and a stability factor in the 66th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.43 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 66th percentile and quality factor at the 65th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (66th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-25.2%), weak asset returns (ROA -25.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.5/100 (rank #2246 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (30/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.