UPST

We rate Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) as Avoid with a composite score of 37.0/100 at a current price of $28.13. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (70th percentile) and value (48th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (6th percentile) and stability (8th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 37.0/100 places it at rank #3903 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $6.2B in market capitalization, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 117%, though momentum at the 6th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -5% (-21.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 2%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $28.13, Upstart Holdings, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 48/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 101.8x (a 754% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 16.8x (at a premium), P/B of 3.6x, P/S of 3.2x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Upstart Holdings, Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.54), significant leverage (272% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (8th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.54); significant leverage (272% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (8th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 101.8x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 8th percentile and quality factor at the 70th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (3.5%), elevated leverage (272% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Upstart Holdings, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Upstart Holdings, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 37.0/100 (rank #3903 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 33/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Upstart Holdings, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.