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UNP Stock Analysis: Hold (Score 55.6/100) | Blank Capital Research | Blank Capital Research
UNP
UNION PACIFIC CORP
$250.51
-0.64 (-0.25%)
Score55.6
Data as of Apr 6, 2026
UNP
UNION PACIFIC CORP
IndustrialsTransportation
$250.51
-0.64 (-0.25%)
Open $251.00High $252.23Low $249.27Prev $251.15Vol ---52W: $204.66 – $267.88
Hold
Composite score
01234567890123456789.0123456789
Global rank
#595
Percentile
Top 13%
Business quality
72nd
percentile
Exceptional capital efficiency and structural profitability. This enterprise generates superior returns on invested capital compared to industry peers.
Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 72.1GRADE B+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
37.7%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
2.28%
Trailing Yield
$2.28
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
48%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 55.6/100, ranked #595 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 72/100, Value 62/100, Momentum 49/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does UNION PACIFIC CORP Do?
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. As of December 31, 2021, its rail network included 32,452 route miles connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Transportation industry. The company is led by CEO Lance M. Fritz and employs approximately 30,700 people, headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. With a market capitalization of $144.3B, UNP is one of the prominent companies in the Industrials sector.
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, UNION PACIFIC CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.UNP ranks #595 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, UNION PACIFIC CORP ranks #101 of 752 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
UNP Stock Price and 52-Week Range
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) currently trades at $250.51. The stock lost $0.64 (0.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for UNP is $267.88, which means the stock is currently trading -6.5% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $204.66, putting the stock 22.4% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 2.4M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is UNP Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) carries a value factor score of 62/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 20.99x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 26%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 7.91x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 5.96x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, UNP trades at 18.04x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector.
Overall, UNP's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
UNION PACIFIC CORP Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) earns a quality factor score of 72/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 37.7%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 10.0% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, UNION PACIFIC CORP reports gross margins of 76.0%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 40.2% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 28.4%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at 4.0% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
UNP Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
UNION PACIFIC CORP has a debt-to-equity ratio of 172.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.91x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $31.81B. Cash and equivalents stand at $808M.
UNP has a beta of 0.68, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for UNION PACIFIC CORP is 89/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
UNION PACIFIC CORP Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, UNION PACIFIC CORP reported revenue of $24.52B and earnings per share (EPS) of $12.00. Net income for the quarter was $6.96B. Gross margin was 76.0%. Operating income came in at $9.86B.
In FY 2025, UNION PACIFIC CORP reported revenue of $24.51B and earnings per share (EPS) of $12.00. Net income for the quarter was $7.14B. Revenue grew 1.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $9.85B.
In Q3 2025, UNION PACIFIC CORP reported revenue of $6.24B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.02. Net income for the quarter was $1.79B. Revenue grew 2.5% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $2.55B.
In Q2 2025, UNION PACIFIC CORP reported revenue of $6.15B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.16. Net income for the quarter was $1.88B. Revenue grew 2.4% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $2.52B.
Over the past 8 quarters, UNION PACIFIC CORP has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $6.01B to $24.52B. Investors analyzing UNP stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
UNP Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) currently pays a dividend yield of 2.3%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in UNP stock would generate approximately $$228.00 in annual dividend income. With a net margin of 28.4%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
UNP Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) has a momentum factor score of 49/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 32/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 4/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
UNP vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing UNP against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full UNP vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how UNION PACIFIC CORP stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
UNP Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy UNP? — Investment Thesis Summary
UNION PACIFIC CORP presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 72/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 62/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 89/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on UNP stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Union Pacific Corporation is a leading American freight railroad company that operates a vast network spanning 32,452 route miles across the western United States. Despite its Hold rating from the BCR Quant Model, Union Pacific exhibits several strengths, including robust profitability, a stable operating environment, and a dominant market position. However, concerns around its capital allocation decisions and slowing revenue growth temper the overall investment thesis.
The key takeaway is that Union Pacific is a high-quality railroad operator with an entrenched competitive position, but its valuation and growth prospects may not fully justify an enthusiastic Buy recommendation at this time.
Business Strategy & Overview
Union Pacific is one of the largest freight railroad operators in the United States, transporting a diverse mix of commodities, including agricultural products, automotive parts, chemicals, coal, and consumer goods. The company's rail network connects the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, and Southern California with the Midwest and Eastern United States, providing critical transportation services for a wide range of industries.
Union Pacific's business strategy focuses on operational efficiency, capital investment, and customer service. The company has consistently invested in its rail infrastructure, technology, and fleet to improve productivity, safety, and reliability. This has enabled Union Pacific to maintain its leadership position in the highly consolidated U.S. freight rail industry, which is characterized by significant barriers to entry due to the capital-intensive nature of the business and the extensive regulatory oversight.
In recent years, Union Pacific has also emphasized its sustainability initiatives, including the transition to more fuel-efficient locomotives and the development of innovative transportation solutions to reduce its environmental impact. These efforts align with the growing emphasis on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations among its customer base and investor community.
Looking ahead, Union Pacific's strategic priorities include further enhancing its operational efficiency, expanding its service offerings, and capitalizing on emerging trends in the transportation and logistics sectors, such as the growth of intermodal freight and the increased demand for sustainable transportation solutions.
The company's strong market position, diversified revenue streams, and focus on operational excellence position it well to navigate the evolving industry landscape and deliver long-term value to its shareholders.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
4.0%
Sector: 6.4%
-38% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Union Pacific possesses a wide economic moat, underpinned by its dominant market position, extensive rail network, and significant barriers to entry in the U.S. freight rail industry.
The company's vast and well-maintained rail infrastructure, which includes over 32,000 route miles, represents a substantial competitive advantage. Constructing and maintaining such an expansive network requires immense capital investment and regulatory approvals, making it extremely challenging for new entrants to replicate. This gives Union Pacific a cost advantage and allows it to serve a broader geographic area than its competitors.
Additionally, the U.S. freight rail industry is highly consolidated, with only a few major players, further reinforcing Union Pacific's moat. The significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for economies of scale to achieve operational efficiency create high barriers to entry, limiting the potential for new competitors to emerge and challenge the company's market share.
Union Pacific also benefits from high switching costs for its customers, as transitioning to alternative transportation modes, such as trucking, would be both costly and operationally disruptive for many shippers. This dependence on Union Pacific's services enhances the company's pricing power and customer retention.
Furthermore, Union Pacific's long-standing relationships with its customers, accumulated industry expertise, and reputation for reliability and safety contribute to its intangible assets, further strengthening its competitive position. The company's consistent investments in technology and operational improvements also help to solidify its cost advantages and operational efficiency.
Overall, Union Pacific's extensive rail network, dominant market position, and high barriers to entry create a wide economic moat that should enable the company to maintain its leadership in the U.S. freight rail industry for the foreseeable future.
Financial Health & Profitability
Union Pacific has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a track record of robust profitability and cash flow generation that compares favorably to its industry peers.
The company's gross and operating margins, at 76.0% and 40.2% respectively, are significantly higher than the sector averages of 35.8% and 6.2%, reflecting Union Pacific's operational efficiency and pricing power. Its return on equity (ROE) of 37.7% is also well above the industry's 9.2%, indicating the company's ability to generate strong returns on its capital.
While Union Pacific's balance sheet carries a relatively high debt load, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 172.0% compared to the sector's 70.0%, the company's stable cash flow generation and robust liquidity position mitigate concerns. The firm's current ratio of 0.91 suggests it maintains adequate short-term liquidity to meet its near-term obligations.
Examining the quarterly financial history, Union Pacific has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 4.0% year-over-year increase in the most recent fiscal year, outpacing the sector's 6.6% growth. However, the company's earnings growth has outpaced its revenue growth, indicating its ability to leverage its operational efficiency and pricing power to drive bottom-line expansion.
Overall, Union Pacific's strong profitability metrics, cash flow generation, and liquidity position suggest a financially healthy and well-managed company, despite its relatively high leverage. These factors contribute to the company's stability and resilience in the face of industry challenges.
Valuation Assessment
Union Pacific's current valuation appears reasonably priced, with a P/E ratio of 19.6x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.4x, both of which are lower than the industry averages of 27.7x and 5.7x, respectively. This suggests the stock is trading at a discount compared to its peers, potentially offering an attractive entry point for investors.
The company's free cash flow yield of 0.63% (calculated using the latest fiscal year's free cash flow of $885.18 million and a market capitalization of $139.40 billion) is lower than the sector median, indicating that the stock may be relatively overvalued on a free cash flow basis. However, this metric should be interpreted in the context of Union Pacific's high capital intensity and ongoing investment in its rail infrastructure, which can temporarily depress free cash flow.
Considering Union Pacific's historical valuation range, the current multiples are in line with the company's long-term averages, suggesting the stock is trading at a fair value. Additionally, the company's strong profitability, stable operating environment, and dominant market position support the case for a premium valuation compared to the broader sector.
While Union Pacific's valuation may not appear excessively cheap, the combination of its high-quality fundamentals, consistent financial performance, and reasonable pricing could make the stock an attractive investment proposition for long-term, value-oriented investors. However, the company's slowing revenue growth and capital allocation decisions may temper the overall enthusiasm for the stock.
Risk & Uncertainty
One of the primary risks facing Union Pacific is the potential for increased regulatory scrutiny and intervention, particularly in the areas of environmental regulations and antitrust concerns. As a dominant player in the U.S. freight rail industry, the company may come under greater pressure to address its environmental impact, which could lead to higher compliance costs and potentially impact its profitability.
Additionally, the concentration of the freight rail industry, with only a few major players, raises the possibility of increased antitrust scrutiny and the potential for regulatory actions that could limit Union Pacific's ability to maintain its market position and pricing power.
Another risk factor is the company's high degree of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above the industry average. While Union Pacific's strong cash flow generation and liquidity position help mitigate these concerns, a deterioration in economic conditions or an unexpected increase in interest rates could strain the company's balance sheet and potentially impact its financial flexibility.
Furthermore, Union Pacific's reliance on a diverse range of commodity shipments, including coal and automotive parts, exposes it to fluctuations in demand across various industries. A sustained downturn in any of its key end markets could adversely affect the company's revenue and profitability.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWUnion Pacific's dominant market position, extensive rail network, and high barriers to entry create a wide economic moat that should enable the company to maintain its leadership in the U.S. freight rail industry for the foreseeable future.
BULL VIEWThe company's strong profitability metrics, including robust gross and operating margins, as well as its consistent cash flow generation, demonstrate its ability to leverage its operational efficiency and pricing power to drive long-term growth.
BULL VIEWWith a valuation that appears reasonably priced relative to its peers, Union Pacific could offer an attractive investment opportunity for value-oriented investors seeking exposure to a high-quality, well-managed transportation company.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWThe company's high degree of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above the industry average, could potentially strain its financial flexibility and expose it to risks in the event of a downturn or rising interest rates.
BEAR VIEWUnion Pacific's reliance on a diverse range of commodity shipments, including coal and automotive parts, makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand across various industries, which could adversely affect its revenue and profitability.
BEAR VIEWIncreased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the areas of environmental regulations and antitrust concerns, could lead to higher compliance costs and limit the company's ability to maintain its market position and pricing power.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score UNP and 4,400+ other equities.
UNION PACIFIC CORP exhibits a 384% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
10.0%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
76.0%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
40.2%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
28.4%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $228 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
