UNP

We rate UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.4/100 at a current price of $266.30. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (75th percentile) and quality (60th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (60/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

UNION PACIFIC CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.4/100 places it at rank #1632 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $140.2B market capitalization, UNION PACIFIC CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 4%, though momentum at the 45th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 76% (+20.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 40% (+22.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 28.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 37%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $266.30, UNION PACIFIC CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 45/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 22.7x (a 34% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 19.2x (at a premium), P/B of 8.6x, P/S of 6.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to UNION PACIFIC CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (172% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.67 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (172% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.67 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 75th percentile and quality factor at the 60th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 76% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (75th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($140.2B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate UNION PACIFIC CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 37.7%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 172%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; UNION PACIFIC CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 2.28% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, UNION PACIFIC CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.4/100 (rank #1632 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (60/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 53/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on UNION PACIFIC CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.